Yet those same polls display clear worrying signs. The same Economist-YouGov poll that showed Biden with 81 percent job approval with Democrats also found only 48 percent want him to run again. This is similar to a Marquette Law School poll in March that found only 43 percent of Democratic primary voters want Biden to run again. Those are startlingly low numbers for an incumbent president who is not warring with an important segment of his party.
Biden also scores unusually poorly in test primary matchups with nationally known Democrats. A Harvard-Harris poll in March found he would get only 41 percent of the vote in a hypothetical, multicandidate primary contest. An Emerson College poll of New Hampshire Democrats in March was even worse. Only 29 percent would back Biden in a primary against people such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Never mind that none of these candidates are challenging him, nor are they likely to. A supposedly popular incumbent should not have such low intrinsic backing from his own party’s voters.
The president currently has only two official Democratic challengers, and neither is serious competition. Marianne Williamson, the progressive spiritualist and motivational speaker who got into the race last month, has only a 25 percent favorability rating among Democrats. And Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who announced he was challenging President Biden last week, might have a famous political name (he’s the son of martyred senator Robert F. Kennedy, John F. Kennedy’s brother), but he has no chance of gaining serious support, given his anti-vaccine views and contention that George W. Bush stole the 2004 presidential election.
But the weakness of the field does not mean someone else won’t get into the race. Such a person would have to be willing to take on the entire Democratic establishment, which would rule out most officeholders. He or she would also have to be willing to make strong critiques of Biden from the left, arguing that he hasn’t pushed the left’s priorities with sufficient emphasis or vigor. This narrows the potential field even more, as any opponent would have to possess both strong progressive credentials and strong media skills.
That combination was what fueled the last significant primary challenger to an incumbent president, Pat Buchanan. Buchanan attacked President George H.W. Bush from the right, relying on his years as a national political commentator on television to get his message across. After raising more than $7 million in contributions, Buchanan won 37.5 percent in the New Hampshire primary. He continued to win between 16.7 and 35.7 percent in primaries through Super Tuesday and used his surprisingly strong showing to leverage a prime-time speech at the national convention.
An ambitious progressive with similar skill sets could use a Biden challenge to become a national figure. Such a person would presumably raise tens of millions in small donations, giving them control over a powerful progressive fundraising base. Marry that with charisma and an ability to manipulate modern modes of communication, such as Twitter, and such a person could quickly acquire a notable following.
A significantly younger challenger could also subtly play on Biden’s biggest weakness: his age. Polls regularly show large majorities of Americans are worried that the 80-year-old might be too old for the job. Young Democrats especially want someone new. An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted in late January found that only 23 percent of Democrats aged 18 to 44 want him to run again. A candidate in their 30s or 40s wouldn’t even have to mention the issue for it to arise naturally in voters’ minds.
No such challenger could win unless they garnered significant support from Black voters. This demographic was Biden’s salvation in 2020 and has traditionally not backed White progressives. Sanders, for example, only won 21 percent of the Black vote in his 2016 campaign. A challenger who wanted to do more than build for a future campaign would need to tackle this head-on.
Until that person emerges, Biden can rest assured that his leadership of the Democratic Party is secure. But he should also be praying that no talented progressive decides to test the waters. If that happens, the ripple effects might prove more damaging than he expects.
