This year alone, China could add more solar power than the cumulative total in place in the United States. Last year, the increase in China’s solar and wind power nearly matched the amount of electricity used in many of the world’s major economies, including South Africa, Australia and Spain.
This dizzying pace means China’s carbon dioxide emissions will peak years ahead of its 2030 target. And where one global power leads, others are compelled to follow.
After several years of rapid installation, China’s solar and wind output is big. Its total solar and wind power generation — not the annual increase — in 2022 was more than twice the electricity use of Canada, and far more than what Brazil, Japan or Russia consumes. This year, its solar and wind output could get close to the total power output of India.
China’s combination of economic clout, centralized power and rising energy demand put it in a unique position. No other nation is rolling out renewables nearly this fast. Many low- and middle-income countries need more energy but lack the cash to build. Rich countries have cash but stagnant — or falling — energy demand. That means they are replacing energy systems, which is a less-attractive investment than one driven by growth.
Of course, coal is the elephant in the room. China’s coal consumption is still increasing — in 2022, it burned more of the carbon-intensive fuel than ever, and two new plants were getting permitted every week. Ironically, this fossil-fuel dependence is another factor making it easier for China than, say, the United States to scale up renewables quickly. China deploys dirty power to balance the intermittency of solar and wind. That means fewer batteries and lower costs.
Still, many energy analysts think China’s coal use could peak as early as next year, with the growth in renewables outstripping the nation’s rising electricity demand, too. The hope, then, is that coal could move from the starring role in China’s electricity mix to understudy: there to stand in when solar and wind production is low.
It’s not just power generation: China is transforming transportation, too. In 2022, every third car sold in China was electric — up from 1 in 15 two years before. In the second half of the decade, most new cars in China could be EVs.
This matters domestically and internationally. China might be one of the first countries to leapfrog mass gas-vehicle ownership and go straight to electric. This would help unlock a pathway for other middle-income countries by making EVs cheap enough for first-time car buyers across the world.
To be sure, lowering emissions is not the only motive here. What China wants is energy independence. It’s building coal plants to replace expensive, imported gas. It is fast-tracking solar and wind so it can move away from coal imports. It’s pushing electric cars to cut its dependence on oil and to take advantage of its domestic battery and mineral refining capacity.
In the United States, the $369 billion investment in clean energy in the Inflation Reduction Act has a similar impetus. And some of the big new investments in renewables and energy efficiency in Europe were catalyzed by the turmoil in oil and gas markets brought about by Russia’s war in Ukraine. By January this year, the European Union reduced natural gas demand by 19 percent. It has also promised to slash permit times for new renewable projects.
But in climate terms, it doesn’t matter why countries reduce their carbon emissions, only that they do.
