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WASHINGTON — The first Republican primary debate will feature eight candidates vying for the GOP nomination, but one person will be missing from the stage: former President Donald Trump.
The Republican frontrunner in the 2024 race said earlier this week he won’t take part in the debate. He has long claimed he shouldn’t give rivals who are polling far behind him the chance to take shots.
But the former president’s absence has left some voters wondering: Is the first Republican debate just an audition to be Trump’s running mate?
The Wednesday lineup does include some of Trump’s staunchest critics. But it also includes allies who have defended him on the campaign trail.
Timothy Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, told USA TODAY “If someone really wanted to be Trump’s vice president, then he or she really couldn’t go after Trump hard.”
“That might be easier to avoid with Trump not on the stage,” he said.
Will Nikki Haley and Tim Scott emerge as VP picks?
Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are two of the likeliest candidates to be considered for vice president, according to Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan and co-author of “Debating The Donald.”
Both of the candidates have avoided attacking Trump and have a history with the former president. Haley served as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in his administration, and Scott worked on opportunity zones – a bipartisan initiative – in Trump’s 2017 tax cut legislation.
When Scott announced he would run in 2024, Trump wished the senator good luck on Truth Social and wrote that he was a “big step up” from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
But the South Carolinians haven’t always agreed with Trump.
For instance, Haley has been outspoken about Trump’s stances on China, Russia and NATO. Scott also criticized Trump in 2017 over his response to the violent white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia.
Both Scott and Haley are much more supportive of military aid to Ukraine than Trump and subscribe to a less isolationist foreign policy vision, Kall explained.
But differences and agreements over policy may not be the only factor Trump considers as he looks for a running mate.
Haley and Scott are both in their fifties, which is on the younger end of the crowded field of Republican hopefuls. Since Trump is 77 years old, Kall said, Haley and Scott could help balance the Republican ticket from an age perspective.
They are also both people of color, with Haley being Indian American and Scott being Black. And Haley is the only woman who will appear on the debate stage on Wednesday.
“Republicans have made better inroads regarding race in recent elections, but a tremendous gender gap persists- especially in the battleground state suburbs,” Kall said.
The long-shot options: Doug Burgum and Vivek Ramaswamy
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and biotechnology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy would be considered longshots for vice presidential consideration, Kall said.
Burgum has refrained from criticizing Trump, previously telling USA TODAY he wouldn’t opine on other candidate’s campaigns. But he has very little name recognition and has struggled to meet the requirements to hit the debate stage.
Ramaswamy defended Trump after the former president was indicted in four criminal cases this year. However, he is 38 with no political experience, and he also isn’t a national figure.
“Presidents generally look for running mates that have a wealth of political experience and who are qualified to assume office on a moment’s notice if needed,” Kall said.
Which candidates are out of the question as Trump’s pick?
The candidates likely out of consideration include former Vice President Mike Pence, DeSantis, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Trump and Pence publicly split after the then-vice president refused to decertify President Joe Biden’s electoral votes in 2020. Pence has continued to receive blowback from Trump since he launched his campaign, with the former president calling him “delusional” and accusing him of going to the “dark side.”
But Pence has also been critical of Trump. He said after his former boss was indicted over alleged efforts to steal the 2020 election that “anyone who puts himself over the Constitution” shouldn’t be president.
Christie, who was also once a close Trump ally, broke with the former president in the wake of the 2020 election. He has previously referred to Trump as a loser and coward, and he has made clear in campaign events the party can’t afford to nominate the former president.
As for DeSantis, the 12th Amendment to the Constitution says the president and vice president can’t inhabit the same state, so Trump can’t consider DeSantis to be a running mate because they both reside in Florida, Kall said.
Even so, DeSantis has previously shut down the idea, saying he is not a number two guy in interviews amid his strained relationship with Trump.
Hutchinson, one of Trump’s fiercest critics, is also out of the game. He told USA TODAY Trump is not right to lead the party, and there needs to be new leadership and direction in the White House.
Who do voters want Trump to pick?
Susan Mulligan Cataldo, a 60-year-old a tutor, nanny and Uber Eats driver in Nevada, said she thinks the best Trump running mates would either be former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake or South Dakota Gov. Kristie Noem. But she also pointed to Ramaswamy’s experience in business.
“I think that he would be good in an economic position, perhaps like treasurer or something like that…He’s an absolute financial genius, and I think that he’s ethical,” Cataldo said.
“But as vice president, I don’t see anybody there that would work as vice president to Trump,” she added.
Lake has been a vocal supporter of Trump and has acted as a surrogate for him on a few occasions.
Steve Stevers, a 76-year-old retired police officer in Ohio, told USA TODAY he’s supporting Pence for the 2024 Republican nomination. But he thinks the best candidate for Trump’s running mate would be Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, calling him “more central” than other Republicans. Trump campaigned for the Republican senator last year for his reelection bid in the midterm elections.
Stevers also likes Scott, but he doesn’t think any of the candidates debating will be chosen as a running mate.
Meanwhile, 65-year-old James Nolan, an engineer who lives in Alabama, thinks DeSantis and Ramaswamy would be good running mates for the former president.
“They’re both very level headed individuals – planners and thinkers,” Nolan said. “And he needs someone like that around him.”
Will the GOP debate be an audition for Trump?
It’s too early in the primary process for this debate to make sense as an audition for vice president, Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, said.
“Vice presidential candidates are often chosen based on the needs of the campaign at the time,” he said. “No one really knows what the status of the race will be next summer, so even speculating on the choice seems difficult.”
Kall agreed, noting that the the event will offer an opportunity for candidates to make a good first impression and the strongest arguments about why they could defeat Biden in a general election.
James Campbell, a political science professor at the University at Buffalo, said he believes Trump might consider the debate performances in his choice, but it will be one of many factors.
“Compatibility and support for Trump as well as a strong performance will be on the positive side, and attacks on him and any gaffes will be on the negative side of Trump’s ledger,” Campbell said.
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