Key Points
- A ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is set to take effect from Sunday.
- US president-elect Donald Trump may have influenced the timing of the negotiations, experts say.
- A second phase of the ceasefire will be negotiated during the first phase.
While some details of a have been laid out, the full impact of the accord is still unclear, as 15 months of conflict has reshaped reality in the Gaza Strip and the wider Middle East.
The deal for an initial six-week ceasefire period is set to come into action on Sunday, if it’s agreed on by the Israeli cabinet.
The agreement outlines a process for the .
Israeli soldiers would gradually withdraw from Gaza, with further negotiations set to take place during the ceasefire to discuss a permanent resolution and the governance of the enclave.
As the world reacts to this significant moment of the war, here are some of the key talking points.
Why did the Gaza ceasefire deal happen now?
Most of the conditions of the ceasefire were agreed to in mid-2024.
But it wasn’t until now that the “conditions were ripe,” Dr Ran Porat, affiliate research associate at Monash University’s Australian Centre for Jewish Civilisation, told SBS News.
He said in recent months, Hamas likely no longer believed in the strength of its allies, particularly Iran, which added pressure on the negotiations.
“Iran, its proxies in Lebanon, in Syria, Iraq and possibly other places have collapsed, following Israel’s sophisticated attacks in Lebanon and the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime,” he said.
The aftermath following an Israeli airstrike at Shati refugee camp in Gaza City. Source: AAP / Adel Hana
“So there’s no help coming from Iran to aid Hamas’ situation on the ground.”
Dr Eyal Mayroz, a lecturer in peace and conflict studies at the University of Sydney, told SBS News the Israeli public and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been in favour of a ceasefire deal for some time.
“It doesn’t seem like [Benjamin] Netanyahu can provide what he had promised in terms of decimating Hamas, and the IDF for months now has been saying that there’s no real value in continuing the war in Gaza,” he said.
“Israeli casualties are mounting, and the value for Israel security in remaining there [in Gaza] and trying to pick up more and more Hamas militants is negligible compared to what the negative side effects are.”
Both analysts also highlighted the influence of the United States President-elect Donald Trump in shaping the negotiations.
Porat said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would likely have lost office had he agreed to the ceasefire deal earlier, as conservative members of his war cabinet would not have accepted it.
However, with the current situation, Netanyahu can now claim that Trump pushed him into accepting the deal, Porat said.
“Everybody benefits from that spin that Trump was successful in forcing Israel to do what he wants, and Netanyahu can say he was forced into it, but the bottom line is that Trump brought him credibility,” he said.
“He [Trump] brought in a no-nonsense approach and brought in a deadline.”
Trump had warned there would be “hell to pay” unless hostages held by Hamas were freed before he takes office on 20 January. Outgoing President Joe Biden also pushed for a deal in the final months of his term.
Will the ceasefire bring long-term peace?
The deal covers a six-week ceasefire, with negotiations for a second phase set to begin by the 16th day of phase one.
Mayroz said there is a “very strong international coalition” of European and Arab states, as well as the US, is likely to ensure the second stage of the deal proceeds without deterioration.
Palestinians responded to news of the deal by celebrating in the streets of Gaza, where they have faced severe shortages of food, water, shelter and fuel.
In Khan Younis, throngs clogged the streets amid the sounds of horns as they cheered, danced and waved Palestinian flags.
Meanwhile, in Tel Aviv, families of Israeli hostages and their friends rejoiced at the news, saying in a statement they felt “overwhelming joy and relief about the agreement to bring our loved ones home”.
Porat said peace is “a big word in the Middle East”, and while people want peace, they are likely hoping for stability instead.
“There’s a glimmer of hope now that this is the beginning of the end of this particular period of suffering.”
Who is likely to govern Gaza?
World leaders, , have said there must be no role for Hamas in a future Gaza government.
According to Mayroz, Israel has delayed making a decision on who would govern Gaza for a long time, which has undermined its own interest and that of others.
“The Israeli refusal to allow or agree to any kind of participation on the part of the Palestinian Authority that is partially ruling parts of the West Bank at the moment was very detrimental to the continuation of the violence, but also to the solutions on the day after,” he said.
But he said Israel has likely conceded that the Palestinian Authority would have to be involved to some extent in governing Gaza.
“It will have to be a combination of Palestinian self-rule, very strong Arab support economically and in other ways, as well as international American and other states to be involved,” he said.
Porat said Gaza is home to various family groups, with some loyal to Hamas and others loyal to the Palestinian Authority.
He said “the best option” would be for another Arab country to send armed forces in the short term to establish security.
What is the possible future of Hamas?
Hamas is a Palestinian political and military group that has governed the Gaza Strip since the most recent elections in 2006.
Hamas’ stated aim is to establish a Palestinian state and stop the Israeli occupation of Gaza and the West Bank, which is illegal under international law.
Hamas, in its entirety, is listed as a terrorist organisation by the European Union and seven other countries, including Australia. Other countries list only its military wing as a terrorist group.
The United Nations did not condemn Hamas in its entirety as a terrorist organisation due to insufficient support from member states during a 2018 vote.
Porat said Hamas has been severely diminished by the conflict with Israel.
“Hamas has not completely vanished, not as an ideology and not as an organisation, but it’s considerably weakened,” he said.
“There is now an opportunity to reduce Hamas to something which is possibly still in the background, but it cannot be completely destroyed or eliminated, but is weak enough to fade over time if a better alternative comes in.”
What does the deal mean for Israelis and Palestinians?
Porat said the ceasefire deal is a moment of hope for Palestinians and Israelis, who are longing for the release of their loved ones.
“It’s also a moment of hope for the whole of the Middle East because this opens the way for a Middle East that is free of in the long run, not in the short run, free of extremism or more balanced, more stable, and where people can just live. I’m not saying we are, are there, we are far from there,” he said.
The ceasefire deal requires 600 truckloads of humanitarian aid to be allowed into Gaza every day of the ceasefire, 50 of them carrying fuel and 300 of the trucks allocated to the enclave’s north.
Israel’s parliament banned official dealings with the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the body responsible for helping Palestinian refugees, and Ian Parmeter, research scholar at the Australian National University wrote in the Conversation: “How will the aid be distributed?
“The ban was imposed because Israel believes some 13 UNRWA staff were involved in the October 7 2023 attack that ignited the war.
“However, the UN says no other body is currently equipped to administer aid distribution inside the strip.”
The ceasefire deal includes Israel halting its aerial flights over Gaza for 10 to 12 hours daily, likely allowing Hamas to continue collecting and releasing hostages.
Mayroz said the Palestinian people stand to gain the most from any ceasefire.
“The reprieve will be good, but unless this stops the violence altogether, then they will be thrown back into the same dire situation they’ve suffered for so long.”
— With additional reporting from Reuters.
