Israel’s latest strike on Qatar has “undoubtedly undermined” ongoing peace negotiations with Hamas and could put the lives of hostages and Gazans at further risk, according to expert analysis.
The attack on Doha killed five Hamas members including a senior leader’s son, Israel reported but Hamas disputes, as Israel expands its wide-ranging military actions in the Middle East.
Qatar is a key security partner of the United States and has acted as a mediator alongside Egypt in talks on a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong condemned Israel’s airstrikes, saying they will “obviously make it harder” to reach a peace deal and they risk further escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
What does it mean for ceasefire negotiations?
Ian Parmeter, a Middle East expert at the ANU Centre of Arab and Islamic Studies, told SBS News the strikes on Qatar are “odd”.
“It’s an attack which really is puzzling, particularly since they don’t appear to have got [US President] Donald Trump on side with it in advance,” he said.
“It’s odd, if you are serious about negotiations, you don’t try to kill the other side’s negotiators.
“It does raise questions all around the world as to the extent to which Israel is serious about negotiating a ceasefire with Hamas.”
In a post on his Truth Social network, US President Donald Trump insisted he played no role in the attack in Doha.
“This was a decision made by Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu; it was not a decision made by me,” he said.
Parmeter said the strike “upsets” efforts for peace, which have so far been unsuccessfully mediated by Qatar and the US.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said Qatar reserved “the right to respond to this blatant attack”, calling the strike a “pivotal moment” for the region.
What are Netanyahu’s ambitions in the region?
If Netanyahu is not interested in a ceasefire, the question then arises: what is he trying to achieve in Gaza?
Parmeter said Netanyahu wants to ensure Israel’s safety in the region above all else.
“He’s doing it in a way that is aimed at destroying Israel’s enemies. It’s destroying its enemies, not only in Qatar, of course, but in Gaza,” he said.
One of Israel’s main pushes in negotiations with Hamas has been for the safe return of Israeli hostages held in Gaza since October 2023.
There are 48 hostages in Gaza, 20 of whom are believed to be alive.
Israel has bombarded Gaza since Hamas’s October 7 attack in 2023, in which more than 1,200 people, including an estimated 30 children, were killed and over 200 hostages taken, according to the Israeli tallies.
More than 63,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s subsequent campaign against Hamas in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials, and flattened much of the densely populated strip, which is home to more than two million people.
Parmeter said a hostage release deal was “undoubtedly undermined” by the strike on Qatar, suggesting Netanyahu is shifting his focus in the war.
It’s a decision that’s also being criticised domestically.
“He is prioritising his own political survival over the release of the hostages, which is what is now being openly said among those trying to put pressure on the Netanyahu government to effect the release of the hostages,” he said.
Eyal Mayroz, a senior lecturer in peace and conflict studies at The University of Sydney, told SBS News Israel is not looking for “meaningful negotiations”.
“Looking at Netanyahu’s personal agenda, he appears not to be thinking he will benefit from ending the war, and that politically negotiations with Hamas could make him look weak,” he said.
“The radical elements in his government that hold a lot of sway there are steadily against any kind of compromises.”
What does this attack mean for future of Gaza and hostages?
Mayroz said any ceasefire or hostage deal could be stalled as a result of the latest strike on Qatar, which could essentially mean conflict in the region will continue.
He described the hostages and Gazans as the casualties of the ongoing negotiations.
“This is a devastating blow to the negotiations and to the hostages and to the families of those Israeli hostages,” he said.
“And there are close to a million people at the moment in Gaza City that are supposed to leave their houses and are being killed on a daily basis, as well as in the rest of the Strip.”
On Tuesday, the Israeli military told all Gaza City residents to leave immediately and head southwards, saying it would act with “great force” in the city.
Can US involvement help?
Mayroz said the key to the negotiations could rest in the hands of the US, as the major player in negotiations thus far.
“Trump can make or break success in negotiations by forcing both sides, and mainly Israel, to concede to some demands that may in the future make some kind of a ceasefire,” he said.
“But Trump is not showing a coherent foreign policy or any kind of strategic thinking, more like ad hoc, short-term thinking, and what looks good in the media.”
However, Trump could put more pressure on Netanyahu to make concessions in negotiations, in order to advance his personal aspirations of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, Mayroz said.
“He [Trump] also wants to maintain healthy relations with both Qatar and the Arab world,” he said.
Could there be peace in the future?
Mayroz said it’s hard to say whether negotiations will lead to peace in the region.
“The negotiations on the Hamas side have not been very fruitful, even though Hamas has twice already recently said that they agreed to American proposals, but still maintain certain positions in relation to these negotiations that Israel said it’ll not accept,” he said.
Parmeter said negotiations with Hamas could lead to peace in the region and ensure security for Israel.
“No enemy in the Middle East is ever completely destroyed. At some point, they do reconstitute their abilities and they become more of a threat.
“The only way to resolve problems in the Middle East is through negotiation, and it was through negotiation that Israel was able to make peace with Egypt, which was a remarkable achievement.
“So it’s negotiation which will create security for Israel, not further violence.”
