Opinion | Democrats begin to target vulnerable GOP seats

Some seats are located in very expensive media markets in New York or California; others are in safe Biden states where Republican turnout might be low. Some New York seats would be tough to take back (e.g., the 19th Congressional District) unless Democrats can redistrict them. With those considerations in mind, Democrats assessing the contests think 14 to 16 of the 18 districts are gettable. A swing of just five seats would put the House back in Democratic hands.

The process of prioritizing races and marshaling money has already begun. Yasmin Radjy, executive director of Swing Left, a national organization with an extensive grass-roots network of volunteers and donors for Democrats in competitive seats, announced on Tuesday the six incumbent Republicans of those 18 the organization will initially focus on.

In addition to Santos in New York’s 3rd District, the Swing Left list includes Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Oregon 5th); John S. Duarte (California 13th); Mike Garcia (California 27th); Anthony D’Esposito (New York 4th); and Michael Lawler (New York 17th).

Expect other Democratic groups, not to mention the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, to come up with their own lists of targets. (Radjy also announced six Democratic-held seats to defend that Republicans are likely to target.)

While it is unusual to make such announcements this early in an election cycle, Swing Left officials tell me that they have donors and volunteers raring to go. They’ve been energized by the recent Wisconsin Supreme Court election, enraged by the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning last year of Roe v. Wade and exasperated by the crazed conduct of MAGA House Republicans’ debt-ceiling antics.

Moreover, Swing Left wants to encourage Democrats to think more strategically about where to spend money and when. Its leadership firmly believes that investing now, in 2023, will take their GOP targets out of play in 2024, which would then allow critical grass-roots organizing and donation resources to be deployed elsewhere up and down the ticket. If Democrats wait until 2024, it could risk losing these races by just a few thousand votes.

Veterans of the DCCC and other Democratic groups reacted positively to Swing Left’s half-dozen picks, agreeing that these are exactly the sort of seats Democrats must take to win back the House. In looking at the six seats held by Republicans, they are convinced that a solid (not necessary exceptional) Democratic candidate is all they need in a presidential year, provided the right message and adequate money are there. They expect congressional races to be highly nationalized, thanks to an expected rematch between Biden and former president Donald Trump, the saliency of the abortion issue and the MAGA House Republicans’ machinations (which unify Democrats, non-MAGA Republicans and independents).

In Oregon’s 5th District, the incumbent Republican, Chavez-DeRemer, won by fewer than 7,500 votes in 2022, in a state likely to go heavily for Biden in 2024. The defeated Democratic candidate in 2022, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, an emergency response coordinator, pulled off a stunning upset in the primary against the porevious incumbent, Kurt Schrader, a centrist who might have been able to hold the seat. Whether Schrader returns or another candidate steps forward, Democrats must keep the focus on Republicans.

Over in California’s 13th District, Democrat Adam Gray lost to John Duarte in 2022 by fewer than 600 votes and “overperformed” with independents. In a presidential year with Biden at the top of the ticket and a surefire winner in the state, Gray (or another contender) is well-positioned to pick up the seat in the Central Valley, a far-less-expensive media market than many others.

Elsewhere in the state, Democrats think they have a strong contender for the 27th District in George Whitesides, a former Virgin Galactic CEO and NASA chief of staff, who has already declared his candidacy. (The overwhelming favorite of Democratic regulars, he might not find any credible opponents in California’s top-two primary other than Garcia, the Swing Left-targeted GOP incumbent.)

“Democrats hold a 12-point registration edge in the 27th District,” the Independent reported, “a once-conservative stretch of suburbs and high desert communities that then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden carried by double digits in the 2020 election.” But Garcia, a former Navy fighter pilot, will not be an easy opponent. (He won in 2022 by just less than 14,000 votes.) Democrats will try to puncture Garcia’s image as a moderate, pointing out his steady loyalty to Trump.

Even with an unfriendly redrawn district, Democrats came within about 3,200 votes of winning the 17th in New York, another state Biden will win going away in 2024. Sean Patrick Maloney, the incumbent in 2022 and the House Democratic campaign chief, ran a dreadful campaign by many accounts. Democrats would be greatly aided if the district lines were rejiggered. However, choosing the right candidate is even more critical. Mondaire Jones, a Democratic congressman who abandoned the 17th after the lines were redrawn, only to lose in a Lower Manhattan-Brooklyn primary, might pursue his former seat. But that sort of opportunism might not sit well with voters.

The New York 3rd and 4th Districts might be two of the easiest targets for Democrats. Santos says he will run for reelection but is loathed by local Republicans and donors who feel deceived by his serial misrepresentations. Democrat Tom Suozzi won the seat over Santos by double digits in 2020, then left for a gubernatorial bid that failed in the primary. If he returns to 3rd District, Suozzi stands an excellent chance to win back the seat.

D’Esposito, a former New York City police detective and volunteer firefighter, had the perfect résumé for New York’s 4th District in 2022. Now, however, he’s going to have to defend his consistent support for MAGA positions, such as proposals to cut domestic spending (including law enforcement) and to take funding away from the Internal Revenue Service to track down rich tax cheats.

If Swing Left gets the response it expects, it will expand its target list for a House majority — a battle Democrats are increasingly confident they can win, so long as the alternative is the hapless House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and his band of radical MAGA cohorts.

The “Biden 18” in full: John S. Duarte (California 13th), David G. Valadao (California 22nd), Mike Garcia (California 27th), Anthony D’Esposito (New York 4th), George Santos (New York 3rd), Young Kim (California 40th), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pennsylvania 1st), Michelle Steel (California 45th), Nick LaLota (New York 1st), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Oregon 5th), Michael Lawler (New York 17th), Don Bacon (Nebraska 2nd), Brandon Williams (New York 22nd), Thomas H. Kean (New Jersey 7th), Marcus J. Molinaro (New York 19th), Jen A. Kiggans (Virginia 2nd), David Schweikert (Arizona 1st) and Juan Ciscomani (Arizona 6th).