Opinion | We need longer-term discipline on the debt ceiling

If the market doesn’t impose discipline on the United States, then why should the United States care about how much debt it issues? For one thing, history suggests investors can change their collective mind without warning, and the consequences can be convulsive. This should reinforce the value of establishing our own sense of fiscal discipline. But how? Limiting deficits can reduce debt vulnerabilities without creating the kind of near-term bond market jitters and economic risks associated with high-wire debt ceiling negotiations. But our track record here is weak, leading us to act only under threat of crisis.

Let’s hope that whatever short-term resolution is reached this time does not diminish the urgency of seeking longer-term discipline that allows us to control our own fate.

The writer was chief financial officer of the World Bank from 1998 to 2003 and was an expert adviser to the Treasury Department on establishing its Office of Risk Management in 2014.

This Democrat believes that if the United States defaults, it will mainly be President Biden’s fault. I very much hope a default can be avoided, but the closer we get to the precipice, the less likely that seems.

Aside from the fact that the buck stops with the president, Mr. Biden’s errors are numerous. He should not have held on so long to the position that only a no-strings rise of the debt ceiling was acceptable, knowing that this would go nowhere with House Republicans. He should have realized much sooner that there is a non-negligible group in the House whose interest in making him a one-term president exceeded their desire to avoid having the U.S. and world economies go down the tubes. There are also some fools who completely misunderstand just how bad a default would really be.

Mr. Biden should have avoided a foreign trip, even one as important as the Group of Seven summit, to try to salvage a deal. Mr. Biden should have realized much sooner that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s desire to hang on to his speakership trumped any willingness to be flexible.

Once former president Donald Trump came out in favor of default, the odds of one increased enormously, and the ads have already started appearing as to whose fault it will be. Regrettably, if default occurs, Mr. Biden will get most of the blame and a one-term presidency will become all but inevitable.