United States President Donald Trump set what he called a “great test” for his nation’s allies — one many declined to meet.
His response to a resounding lack of support for securing the Strait of Hormuz is underscoring the fine line that US-allied countries, including Australia, are treading as the war in the Middle East continues for a third week.
Overnight, Trump lashed out at Australia, Japan, South Korea and the NATO alliance, saying in a Truth Social post the US no longer wanted or needed their assistance.
However, the Australian government said that a formal request hadn’t been made for support in the key oil shipping channel.
Trump said the US had been told by “most” of its NATO allies that they “don’t want to get involved” in the conflict despite supporting it.
But was the request a “fantasy” in the first place, and what could happen if Trump continues to be rebuffed by the US’ allies?
An ‘unrealistic’ request?
Earlier this week, Trump called on partners to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas is shipped.
Iran has effectively blocked the channel since the US and Israel attacked last month — sending global oil prices skyrocketing.
“Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint will send ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a nation that has been totally decapitated,” Trump’s 14 March social post read.
Some naval analysts have said sending vessels to protect shipping traffic in the strait would carry significant risks, and would likely restore only a fraction of pre-war traffic.
Trump’s suggestion failed to gain support, with several European leaders outright rejecting it.
A spokesperson for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said “this war has nothing to do with NATO”, describing it as a defensive alliance. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said his country “will not be drawn into the wider war”, though its energy minister, Ed Milliband, said the UK was considering ways it could contribute to get the strait reopened.
French President Emmanuel Macron said France would not consider operations in the strait until the situation had de-escalated.
Speaking to reporters, Trump accused NATO of making a “very foolish mistake”.
“I’ve long said that I wonder whether or not NATO would ever be there for us. So this was a great test,” he said.
Brendon O’Connor, a professor of US politics and US foreign relations at the University of Sydney, told SBS News few countries have the naval capacity to secure large numbers of tankers in the strait.
“This isn’t something the US is very capable of doing itself — the largest military in the world — [so] to believe that the Japanese or the Australians have that capacity, or the British, even, isn’t realistic.”
“This is fantasy from Trump, to some extent,” he said.
US allies’ balancing act
Trump’s increasingly unilateral approach in his second term has made traditional security partners more reluctant to support US military ventures, said international conflict expert Jessica Genauer, academic director of the Public Policy Institute at the University of New South Wales.
Allies and middle powers don’t want to be associated with these kind of military actions, she told SBS News, adding that involvement is also unpopular with many domestic audiences.
Australia, she said, is navigating a delicate balancing act — steering clear of appearing “all in” on a US military operation in Iran, while avoiding a rupture with Trump that could threaten security alliances and trigger economic consequences such as additional tariffs.
Defence Minister Richard Marles had said on Tuesday the Australian government was not asked to send ships to help secure the strait, but it would consider any request to participate in the conflict in the context of national interest.
Australia was also not among the countries that Trump had named in his Truth Social post calling for support.
Similarly, Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Monday her government had not received a request to dispatch ships, but it was “examining what necessary measures should be taken”. South Korea’s foreign ministry told the BBC it was “paying close attention” and considering what measures it could take while protecting its citizens.
How might Trump retaliate or apply pressure?
Trump has demonstrated throughout his second term a willingness to retaliate against allies who do not align with his administration’s interests, most often through tariffs.
But the US Supreme Court recently ruled that many of the import duties he imposed last year were illegal.
“This has taken away one of Trump’s main and one of his most important mechanisms of leverage to try to punish countries when he doesn’t agree with their decisions,” Genauer said.
“So if not tariffs, I would expect that Trump would start to obstruct agreements or cooperation that would be important to other countries,” she added, citing the trilateral AUKUS security pact as a potential example.
What does this mean for Australia’s relationship with the US?
Genauer believes Australia is at “a real crossroads right now”. While its longstanding relationship with the US is critical, “we do need to start preparing for a contingency”, she said.
“We need to start preparing for a world in which it will become imperative for us to decouple from the US economically and also in security terms.”
“I think that’s something the Australian government is probably already thinking about, and it’s something that, yes, we need to operate on these two tracks.”
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced last week that Australia, in response to requests, would deploy a spy plane and missiles to assist the United Arab Emirates and Gulf states in defence against Iranian strikes.
While Coalition brass supported the move, it drew sharp criticism from the Greens, with foreign affairs spokesman David Shoebridge accusing the government of “bowing to pressure from the United States”.
Speaking to ABC News on Wednesday morning, former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said Trump’s behaviour underscored the importance of Australia becoming more independent from the US.
“We are making ourselves more dependent on the US at a time when the US is less dependable,” he said. “We have to be able to do more to defend ourselves.”
He said Trump does not respect his allies, pointing to US “bullying” and “intimidation” and Trump’s repeated threats to overtake Greenland, a territory of NATO member Denmark.
What about NATO?
Trump’s push to acquire Greenland “fundamentally broke core trust” in the translatlantic security partnership, according to Genauer.
However, in refusing to assist the US in the Middle East, European nations risk losing US support to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
“A key concern for European countries is that if they do not help the US in its war with Iran, the US will completely withdraw military support, but also intelligence support from Ukraine, which is a war that they care about a lot,” she said.
Speaking in London on Tuesday, Finnish President Alexander Stubb entertained the idea of a reciprocal aid deal between Europe and the US in order to resolve both the Gulf oil crisis and the war in Ukraine.
Some argue Trump’s posturing reflects less a substantive rupture and more a performative effort to deflect attention from challenges in the war effort.
“It’s Trump doing diplomacy in front of the cameras, rather than ringing up allies and coordinating a response,” O’Connor told SBS News.
He predicted the alliance will remain intact, despite recent concerns about a fracture.
“I don’t think this will lead to profound changes, apart from NATO allies, once again, thinking what’s wrong with American politics and trying to plan a little more for some degree of self sufficiency.”
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