United States vice-president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump will face off for the first — and perhaps only — time, in a debate that could prove crucial in their race for the White House.
A recent US-wide poll, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, indicates that (11am AEST on Wednesday) could be an important moment.
Harris, the Democratic nominee, will have the chance to give more detail on her planned policies as she goes head-to-head with Republican candidate Trump.
The survey, released on Sunday, found that 28 per cent of likely voters said they needed more information about Harris, while only 9 per cent said the same about Trump.
It comes as several opinion polls indicate a tight-locked race. Even a small boost for either candidate could prove significant.
A tight-locked race
The New York Times and Siena College poll has the nominees effectively tied, with Trump up one percentage point, 48-47 per cent over Harris. This difference is within the survey’s three-point margin of error, meaning a win for either candidate in the 5 November election is within reach.
A poll from the Pew Research Center, released on Monday, also shows registered voters are tied, with 49 per cent saying they would vote for Harris if the election was held today. An identical share said they would support Trump.
Meanwhile, polling from ABC News and Ipsos, conducted after the Democratic National Convention (DNC) and released on 1 September, found Harris had a four percentage-point lead among Americans who plan to vote. This slight lead was roughly in line with polling conducted by ABC News, the Washington Post and Ipsos before the DNC.
Polls in the seven key swing states likely to determine the election winner have also consistently shown a razor-thin race.
Here’s how some expect the debate will unfold — and the pressing issues that are on the minds of likely voters.
The debate
More Americans expect Harris over Trump to stay calm under pressure during a televised debate (45 per cent over 32 per cent) while a larger share thinks Trump will be more persuasive (41 per cent over 33 per cent).
That’s according to a national survey of over 1,000 American citizens, conducted by YouGov and published on 10 September.
It found the candidates were virtually tied when it comes to who is a better debater (41 per cent for Harris and Trump), and who is more likely to win the debate (39 per cent for Haris and 38 per cent for Trump).
Only around 11 per cent of respondents said it was very, or somewhat, likely their minds would be changed by the debate, with 66 per cent saying this was not at all likely.
The majority of respondents wanted the debate to cover inflation (58 per cent), health care (51 per cent) and border security (51 per cent), followed by social security (47 per cent), taxes (45 per cent) and abortion (44 per cent).
What are the issues on the minds of voters?
With less than two months before the November election, there are “wide differences” when it comes to pressing issues between voters who support Harris and Trump, according to the Pew Research Center.
Its latest national survey was conducted among 9,720 adults — including 8,044 registered voters — from 26 August to 2 September.
The survey found that while some issues have long been pressing, others have become increasingly important since the 2020 presidential election.
Most respondents cited several issues as being important to their vote.
The economy
With concerns around the state of the economy and inflation, 81 per cent of registered voters said the economy will be very important in this year’s election.
Around 93 per cent of Trump supporters said the economy is a leading issue (alongside immigration, 82 per cent, and violent crime, 76 per cent), compared with 68 per cent of Harris supporters.
A 55 per cent majority of voters said they are very or somewhat confident in Trump making good decisions about economic policy, compared with 45 per cent for Harris.
Healthcare
For 65 per cent of all voters, healthcare is very important to their vote — including 76 per cent of Harris supporters and 55 per cent of Trump supporters.
Other leading issues for Harris supporters include Supreme Court appointments (73 per cent) and abortion (67 per cent).
Supreme Court appointments
Supreme Court appointments are very important for 63 per cent of all voters, including 73 per cent of Harris supporters and 54 per cent of Trump supporters.
Foreign policy
Foreign policy is on the minds of 62 per cent of all voters, including 70 per cent of Trump supporters, and 54 per cent of Harris supporters.
Violent crime
Violent crime is a very important issue for 61 per cent of all voters, including 76 per cent of Trump supporters, and 46 per cent of Harris supporters.
Immigration
About six in 10 voters (61 per cent) said immigration is very important to their vote — up nine percentage points from the 2020 election.
According to Pew’s research, the issue is now much more important for Republican voters, with 82 per cent of Trump supporters saying it is very important to their vote — up 21 points from 2020.
This compares to 39 per cent of Harris supporters in the 2024 election.
Gun policy
Gun policy is a very important issue for 56 per cent of all voters this year, including 59 per cent of Harris supporters, and 53 per cent of Trump supporters.
Abortion
In August 2020, 40 per cent of voters said abortion was a very important issue to their vote, according to Pew research.
It said the importance of abortion as a voting issue shifted following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade.
Now, 51 per cent of all voters say the issue is very important, including 67 per cent of Harris supporters compared to 35 per cent of those who support Trump.
Voters have more confidence in Harris than Trump to make good decisions about abortion policy (and to address issues around race). They are more confident in Trump over Harris on economic, immigration and foreign policies.
Racial and ethnic inequality
Race and ethnic inequality is a very important issue for 37 per cent of all voters this year, including 56 per cent of Harris supporters, and 18 per cent of Trump supporters.
Climate change
Climate change is also very important for 37 per cent of all voters, including 62 per cent of Harris supporters and just 11 per cent of those who support Trump.
With additional reporting by Reuters
