In recent days, hundreds have been lining up outside retailers across Australia, but not for the latest iPhone or a flash sale.
Instead, they’re waiting hours to buy and sell gold.
Those queuing up have been spurred by bullion prices hitting record highs, with an ounce of gold reaching over $6,700 on Friday, on top of a 70 per cent price surge in this year alone.
In other words, at the start of 2025, it would’ve been about $2,500 cheaper to buy an ounce of gold — and about half of this upswing happened in the past 30 days.
A similar trend is playing with other refined precious metals, with silver breaking a 45-year-old record on Tuesday by hitting $80.77 per ounce.
Why are gold prices increasing?
Various explanations have been put forward to explain the rise in gold prices.
Isaac Poole, the global chief investment officer at Oriana Private Wealth, told SBS News: “When you look at what’s really been pushing demand in gold at the moment, it’s been ETFs (exchange-traded funds).”
ETFs are funds that own a group of assets like stocks or bonds and are bought and sold like individual shares on stock markets. According to the World Gold Council, September was the strongest month on record for gold ETF flows.
“You are seeing this huge financialisation of gold bullion through ETFs and retail investors racing out to buy after the market’s already up 70 per cent,” Poole said.
“I think that’s been the big story over this year and particularly the last month.”
According to some experts, economic uncertainties around government debt levels and the US government shutdown are part of the picture.
Some also suggest that central banks are turning to gold to replace currency assets like the US dollar.
In 2023 and 2024, central banks demonstrated an unprecedented appetite for gold, purchasing over 1,000 tonnes of gold each year, according to the World Gold Council.
Poole is suspicious about this narrative.
“I would caution buying into the narrative that it’s been central bank buying. I think that was a story in 2022, 2023, and 2024,” he said.
“This is not about central banks: That buying has slowed down. What I think you’re seeing now is a trickle-down effect to retail buyers.
While people in China and India buying gold jewellery has been one of the main reasons behind the gold surge in the last decade, “at these prices, at these levels, they’re not buying anymore”, Poole said
“So the traditional driver of demand has dropped away, which really leads to that point that it is retail demand. It’s investors racing to buy bullion from shops.”
Will gold prices fall?
There are differing predictions of where gold prices will go from here.
In an analysis earlier this month, the World Gold Council said it’s “confident that gold will hold its ground” and would “perhaps see further uplift” if share prices declined.
Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs, the largest investment bank in the world by revenue, also raised its December gold price prediction to US$4,900 ($7,545) per ounce from US$4,300 ($6,621).
In an article in The Conversation, Luke Hartigan, a lecturer in economics at the University of Sydney, noted that “ongoing demand from Russia and China” could also lead to further increases in prices.
However, Poole said, the public “should really approach [the gold market] with caution”.
“I think there’s a warning here. I would put this down to momentum and sentiment.”
While momentum and sentiment can drive commodity prices up, “it’s really critical to remember that gold can go down and stay down for a very long period of time,” he cautioned.
“I’m not going to be able to pick a turning point, but it feels like a melt-up over the last month. When you see a melt-up like that, it means that prices can fall.
“What is really critical to remember for gold is that if you go back over the last 40 years, there have been at least three periods where gold has fallen 50 per cent from its peak and then stayed at those lower prices for up to a decade.”
