Biden’s narrow 2020 loss in North Carolina, Jackson noted, came despite a massive voter turnout among Trump’s core supporters: 81% of registered Republicans and 79% of white voters went to the polls, and there was historic turnout among rural voters and white voters without college degrees.
“The electorate actually happened to be in 2020 more favorable to Republicans than it was in 2016 and Donald Trump did two points worse than in 2016,” Jackson said. “And that’s all driven by demographic shift, by urbanization. North Carolina continues to head that way.”
Yet Republicans have made up significant ground in North Carolina voter registration, forcing Democrats to rely increasingly on unaffiliated independent voters to win elections.
North Carolina added about 760,000 new registered voters between 2012 and 2022. Although Democrats maintain a small edge in registered voters, Democrats experienced a net loss of 360,000 registered voters in the state over that period, compared to a net gain of 170,000 for Republicans. Leading the growth has been an explosion of 930,000 voters not registered with either major party.
