Stock prices go up, stock prices go down — and the reasons why aren’t always obvious, at least not at first glance.
Take the relationship between oil prices and gold prices. Both are commodities, generally priced in U.S. dollars. When the dollar is strong, one can buy more oil or gold per dollar, and when the dollar is weak, one cannot buy as much oil or gold. To an extent, you’d expect both gold and oil to rise and fall in tandem when the value of the U.S. dollar falls and rises.
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That logic hasn’t been working well lately, however.
On Feb. 28, 2026, U.S. and Israeli forces began to bomb Iran. Nervous about the conflict, investors initially fled to safe-haven assets such as gold, silver, and the U.S. dollar, which is up in value about 2% against other currencies over the past three weeks. (Generally, this should drive commodity prices down.)
However, Iran responded to the attacks by closing the Strait of Hormuz, crimping global access to shipments, and driving the price of oil higher regardless. Gold and silver prices, though — and gold and silver stocks — fell in response. In fact, they’ve all been falling steadily for the past week and a half.
Major gold producers such as Newmont Corp. (NYSE: NEM) and Barrick Mining (NYSE: B) are down 15% and 16%, respectively, over the last seven trading days. Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL), America’s biggest silver miner, is down 17%. The declines roughly track declines in the prices of gold and silver, down 10% and 16%, respectively, over the same period.
But aside from their tie to the U.S. dollar, what do the prices of gold and silver have to do with the price of oil?
The theory goes like this: Oil is used everywhere in the modern economy. Beyond just the gasoline refined for our personal cars, the ships and trucks that move everything in our economy also run on oil. When the price of oil rises, the price of transportation rises, too, causing the price of everything to go up.
We call this inflation.
When the Federal Reserve sees inflation rising — and it will — it’s less likely to lower interest rates and more likely to raise them. This increases the cost of debt for all businesses as they’re forced to pay higher interest rates on their bonds. And when investors see interest rates rise, they’re more inclined to invest in those bonds (which pay interest) than to buy gold and silver, which do not.
