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The housing market may be cooling overall, but home prices in 70% of metros still increased, according to the National Association of Realtors’ new quarterly report.
Even as 30-year fixed mortgage rates remained elevated − fluctuating between 6.1% and 6.7% in the first quarter − 7% of the 221 tracked metro areas registered double-digit price increases over the same period. That was down from 18% in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Compared to a year ago, the national median single-family existing-home price decreased 0.2% to $371,200.
“Generally speaking, home prices are lower in expensive markets and higher in affordable markets, implying greater mortgage rate sensitivity for high-priced homes,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
Where did home prices go up?
Among the major U.S. regions, the South saw the largest share of single-family existing-home sales (46%) in the first quarter, with year-over-year price appreciation of 1%. Prices climbed 3% in the Midwest and slipped 0.1% in the Northeast and 5% in the West.
Cities in the West, such as San Francisco; San Jose, California; and Reno, Nevada, saw home prices drop by at least 10% from a year ago. At the same time, prices rose by at least 10% from the previous year in cities like Milwaukee; Dayton, Ohio; and Oklahoma City.
“Home prices are also lower in cities that previously experienced rapid price gains,” said Yun. For example, in Boise, Idaho, where home prices grew by 67% in three years through 2022, saw a 10% decline in year-over-year prices in the first quarter. Price declined 13% in Austin, Texas, and 7% in Phoenix.
Inventory in the first quarter averaged 1,630,000 listings at any given time, down 40% from the first quarter of 2019, a year before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Top 10 metro markets with largest home price gains
The top 10 metro areas with the largest year-over-year price increases all recorded gains of at least 12%, with three of those markets in Wisconsin and two in North Carolina.
- Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, (CQ)Tennessee-Virginia (19%).
- Oshkosh-Neenah, Wisconsin (17%).
- Warner Robins, Georgia (16%).
- Burlington, North Carolina (15%).
- Elmira, New York (15%).
- Oklahoma City (15%).
- Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wisconsin (14%).
- Appleton, Wissonsin (12%).
- Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, North Carolina (12%).
- Santa Fe, New Mexico (12%).
Housing affordability improves in the first quarter
In the first quarter, housing affordability improved slightly from the fourth quarter of 2022 when mortgage rates climbed higher than 7%. The monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $1,859. This represents a 5.5% decrease from the fourth quarter of last year ($1,967) but a jump of 33% – or $462 – from one year ago.
Families typically spent 24.5% of their income on mortgage payments, down from 26.2% in the previous quarter but up from 19.5% one year ago.
First-time buyers found a small measure of relief when looking to purchase a typical home during the first quarter with the quarterly declines in prices and mortgage rates. For a typical starter home valued at $315,500 with a 10% down payment loan, the monthly mortgage payment fell to $1,825, down 5.4% from the previous quarter ($1,930) but an increase of almost $450, or 32.5%, from one year ago ($1,377).
First-time buyers typically spent 37% of their family income on mortgage payments, down from 39.5% in the previous quarter. A mortgage is considered unaffordable if the monthly payment (principal and interest) amounts to more than 25% of the family’s income.
A family needed a qualifying income of at least $100,000 to afford a 10% down payment mortgage in 33% of markets, down from 38% in the prior quarter. Yet, a family needed a qualifying income of less than $50,000 to afford a home in 10% of markets, up from 8.6% in the previous quarter.
Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy is a housing and economy correspondent for USA TODAY. You can follow her on Twitter @SwapnaVenugopal and sign up for our Daily Money newsletter here.
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