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Hurricane Calvin churned across the eastern Pacific Ocean Friday, and could potentially affect Hawaii as a tropical storm or post-tropical cyclone by the middle of next week, forecasters said.
As of Friday evening, Calvin was a Category 3 “major” hurricane, with wind speeds estimated at 125 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. It was still about 2,000 miles from Hawaii.
“Some additional strengthening is possible today,” the hurricane center said. “Weakening is forecast to commence tomorrow and continue through early next week.” The storm should approach the Hawaiian Islands by early Wednesday.
Calvin is the third hurricane of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, following Adrian and Beatriz.
Could Hurricane Calvin impact Hawaii?
According to Hawaii News Now, Calvin is taking a similar path to Hurricane Darby in July 2016 and Hurricane Eugene in July 1993. Both brought heavy rain and flooding to the state and were the earliest tropical cyclones to make landfall on the islands.
The deep tropical moisture associated with the system could bring gusty winds, widespread rainfall, and potential low-level flooding, Hawaii News Now reported. “Potential surf and rip currents on the East shores will be accompanying Calvin,” the news outlet said. “With the current forecast, the Big Island should see the first of the storm system.”
The hurricane center, in a Friday afternoon forecast, confirmed this, saying that “swells generated by Calvin are expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”
The hurricane center added that “given uncertainties about the status and intensity of Calvin near the end of the 5-day period, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.”
Hurricane Calvin forecast map, storm track
Up to 20 storms possible this year in the eastern Pacific
According to the preseason hurricane forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 14 to 20 named storms are expected in the eastern Pacific basin in 2023. Of those, 7 to 11 are predicted to become hurricanes.
An average eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms, of which 8 are hurricanes, NOAA said.
With the strengthening El Niño, an active eastern Pacific hurricane season is likely, forecasters say. While El Niño tends to boost hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific, it usually has the opposite affect in the Atlantic.
Hurricane outlook for 2023:NOAA announces prediction for how many hurricanes will form
Subtropical Storm Don spins in the Atlantic
While Calvin zooms across the Pacific, Subtropical Storm Don spun up in the Atlantic on Friday, the hurricane center said. The storm is forecast to meander around the central Atlantic Ocean and weaken over the next few days. It poses no threat to land.
Don is the fifth named storm to form this year in the Atlantic. So far, none of the storms have reached hurricane strength of 74 mph.
A subtropical storm tends to have a wide zone of strong winds farther from its center compared with a tropical storm, which generates heavier rains, according to the National Weather Service.
Subtropical Storm Don forecast map, storm track
Contributing: The Associated Press
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