The global energy landscape is being redrawn, with nuclear power front and center. In recent years, numerous countries have signed the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Capacity by 2050. Major banks and institutional investors are lining up behind this shift, viewing nuclear as an essential component for decarbonization and energy security.
Realizing this vision requires a vast expansion of infrastructure, from fuel supply chains to grid-ready reactor sites. That’s where next-generation technologies like small modular reactors (SMRs) come in, promising faster, safer, and more flexible deployment.
Oklo(NYSE: OKLO), with its compact, fast-spectrum reactor design, stands out as a potential front-runner, and investors have piled into the stock in response. With a huge potential runway for growth, is Oklo stock a millionaire maker? Let’s dive into the business and the long-term outlook for the upstart nuclear power company.
Global electricity production is projected to increase by over 78% by 2050, driven by the electrification of buildings, transportation, and industry, and increased consumption from data centers. This is where Oklo’s long-term opportunity lies.
Oklo’s Aurora powerhouses appear well suited for mission-critical artificial intelligence (AI) workloads and data centers. These powerhouses utilize metal-fueled fast reactor technology, which is based on the design of the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II, which operated for 30 years at the Argonne National Laboratory until it was shutdown in 1994. The powerhouses are initially designed to produce 15 MWe and 75 MWe of electricity, with plans to expand to 100 MWe and higher.
Oklo employs a build, own, and operate business model. Instead of selling the power plants themselves, Oklo sells the output, electricity, and heat directly to customers under long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs). This strategy is designed to provide recurring revenue and capture profitability from improved operational efficiency.
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Oklo has secured a customer pipeline, mainly through non-binding agreements, totaling over 14 gigawatts (GW) in potential capacity. This shows strong market interest, particularly from the data center and defense sectors.
Oklo’s technology is designed to address the challenge of nuclear waste. Even after use, nuclear fuel waste holds over 95% of its initial energy potential. Accessing this energy reserve is estimated to be the equivalent of approximately 1.2 trillion barrels of oil equivalent in the U.S., nearly five times the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. By pursuing nuclear fuel recycling, Oklo can convert spent fuel into usable fuel for its reactors, creating a structural supply chain and cost advantage.
With that said, it will take time for Oklo to build up a customer base and operate commercially at scale. The company is in its early stages, has had a history of financial losses, and will continue to lose money until its powerhouses become operational. It doesn’t expect its first Aurora powerhouse at the Idaho National Laboratory to become operational until late 2027 or early 2028.
Another factor to consider is that Oklo requires a domestic supply chain for high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which is currently unavailable at scale. Although Oklo has secured fuel for its first commercial facility, future large-scale deployment depends on building supply capacity. Furthermore, while Oklo is actively developing capabilities for its commercial fuel recycling facility, this facility is targeted for deployment by the early 2030s.
The good news for investors is that the Trump administration has designated civil nuclear energy as a national and economic security priority, leading to a coordinated federal push to accelerate deployment. Recent executive orders and legislation, such as the ADVANCE Act, aim to streamline regulatory reviews, reform reactor testing, and strengthen domestic fuel supply chains.
Oklo is chasing a massive market opportunity. According to the International Energy Agency, under current policies, total SMR capacity could reach 40 GW by 2050. However, the agency notes that “the potential is far greater” and could reach 120 GW with policy support and streamlined regulations.
If you invest $10,000 in Oklo today, and the stock returns 25% annually for the next 20 years (a very aggressive return that assumes many things go right), it’d be worth $867,000 in the future. Oklo may deliver long term, but it’s also a possibility that it fails to gain a leadership position in the SMR space where competition is heating up.
Oklo is an intriguing stock that has seen an incredible 1,927% increase over the past year. Given this run-up, the stock’s upside appears more limited today. If investors want to take a chance, they should allocate a tiny percentage of their portfolio to it. But be aware that it’s an early stage start-up with no commercial operations for several years, and its recent run-up makes it a very high-risk stock for those buying today.
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Courtney Carlsen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
