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Read the latest updates from Saturday: Dozens of Florida counties under state of emergency as hurricane forecasters track storm
A developing tropical system in the Caribbean – which isn’t even a depression or storm yet – is moving toward the Gulf of Mexico and could affect Florida by next week, forecasters said.
“The chance of a tropical depression or storm forming has increased, especially for later this weekend into early next week,” said Weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce. “This system would most likely impact Florida around Tuesday or Wednesday, but it’s too early to determine the magnitude of any impacts.”
The next named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be Idalia (pronounced “ee-DAL-ya”).
“Last year’s ‘I’ storm (Ian) also came from the western Caribbean and headed for the west coast of the Florida peninsula, but mercifully as of now there is zero indication of anything like that happening this time around,” University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy said on his blog Thursday.
What does the hurricane center say?
The National Hurricane Center is on board with development of this system, giving it an 80% chance of formation: “Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while moving generally northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico.”
“Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system,” the hurricane center said.
Dolce said that while Gulf waters are plenty warm for a depression or storm to form, wind shear is a possible limiting factor: Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction with height and is usually a hostile factor that prevents the formation of storms, he said.
“The likelihood that a hurricane could hit Florida is low at this time,” Dolce said.
Gov. DeSantis prepares Florida for possible storm
With Florida in the potential path of the storm, officials have begun to prepare. On Thursday, Gov. Ron DeSantis’ official schedule showed he had a call with Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie.
Later, DeSantis posted on X, formerly Twitter: “I’ve directed @KevinGuthrieFL & the FL Emergency Management team to prepare for a potential tropical system currently moving across the Yucatán Peninsula. Residents should remain vigilant and prepare for possible impacts early next week. Follow @FLSERT for updates.”
Spaghetti models for Gulf storm
“Spaghetti models” comprise a broad array of forecasting models. As of Friday afternoon, the models pictured below are projections based on performance of previous storms and potential wind shear, and not the high-level ensemble models forecasters use to project a path once a storm forms.
The latest on Tropical Storm Franklin
Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, Tropical Storm Franklin continues to spin in the Atlantic Ocean. Franklin is forecast to remain well out to sea, likely strengthening into a hurricane over the next couple of days, the hurricane center said.
In the U.S., the only expected impact from Franklin will be along the Atlantic coastline, with rough surf and coastal erosion the main effects. A weather service forecast office in North Carolina said: “Tropical Cyclone Franklin is forecast to pass well east of NC Monday into Tuesday and produce long-period swell across the NC waters. This swell, in combination with a King Tide cycle early next week could result in some beach erosion and ocean overwash across the Outer Banks.”
Also in the Atlantic, a pair of tropical disturbances far out to sea are unlikely to affect land, the hurricane center said. One of them could become a tropical depression by early next week.
Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network; Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY
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