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He also published a No. 1 New York Times bestseller on his Florida record; headlined record-breaking GOP fundraising dinners in New Hampshire and Alabama; and traveled to Japan, Israel and Britain to meet with world leaders.
What has Donald Trump done in this time? The former president accused DeSantis of turning Florida into a hellhole of “misery and despair,” mocked him as “pudding fingers” in a sophomoric new ad and parroted Democratic talking points charging him with wanting to cut Social Security and Medicare.
DeSantis is delivering victory after victory on issues conservatives care about. Trump is delivering name-calling. Yet a new Wall Street Journal poll finds that during this period, Trump has jumped from a 14-point deficit in a presidential matchup with DeSantis to a 13-point lead.
Trump is surging even though Republicans say DeSantis is more conservative (by a margin of 37 to 35 percent), has a more presidential temperament (48 to 28 percent) and a better chance of defeating President Biden (41 to 31 percent). On this last point, they are right: In a head-to-head matchup, DeSantis leads Biden 48 to 45 percent in the poll, while Trump trails by the same margin.
What’s going on? Trump is clearly benefiting from his indictment by Democratic Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg over alleged hush money payments to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels, which has caused Republicans to rally around the former president. But Trump’s boost in support might be a mile wide and an inch deep. A new CBS News poll finds that just 24 percent of Republicans say they will only consider Trump as the GOP nominee, while 49 percent say they are considering both Trump and other candidates. Twenty-seven percent say they are not considering Trump at all.
That means 76 percent of the GOP electorate is up for grabs, including more than half of those who tell pollsters they support Trump. The challenge for DeSantis and other GOP presidential contenders is to win over that 76 percent — most of whom have a favorable view of Trump but could be convinced that he is not the right man to carry the party’s banner in 2024.
These voters won’t respond to frontal attacks on Trump’s character or record. They won’t be convinced that Trump was a terrible president (he wasn’t) or that his moral failings disqualify him from office (most don’t believe they do). Quite the opposite: If Trump’s rivals attack him on these fronts while he is under legal and rhetorical assault from Democrats, they will be seen by Republican voters as teaming up with the left to gang up on him — and that could drive voters closer to Trump.
Moreover, the eventual Republican nominee will need the support of the 24 percent who say they are only considering Trump. If they stay home on Election Day, Biden wins. Alienating them is political suicide.
The best argument against Trump is that he can’t win. He has made himself so irreparably toxic with swing voters, who will decide the election, that even those who disapprove of Biden disapprove of Trump even more. So if Republicans make Trump their nominee, they will effectively be handing Biden a second term — and, given Biden’s advanced age, quite possibly put Vice President Harris into the Oval Office.
While Trump is leading, it’s still early. Trump knows he is vulnerable, which is why his attacks on DeSantis will escalate. Instead of taking the bait and responding in kind, DeSantis should ask GOP primary voters: Which is more important, avenging Trump or defeating Biden? Do you care more about grievance or results? Look at what DeSantis has accomplished in Florida in just a few months and imagine a similar legislative juggernaut in Washington. Then look at the serial catastrophes Biden has unleashed and imagine what he could do in four more years.
Three-quarters of the GOP electorate is open to that message.
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