The results show that Trump leads the field with 51 percent of the vote when facing many potential contenders, with his top rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, winning 18 percent and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu coming in third at 10 percent. But when limited to a one-on-one race with DeSantis, Trump’s lead shrinks to 20 points, or 53 percent to 33 percent with the remainder undecided.
The fact that Trump moves up by only two points when the field is narrowed shows this race is not settled. DeSantis currently has not consolidated the support of GOP voters who want someone other than Trump, but once they are forced into a binary choice, his support rises while Trump’s remains nearly stagnant. That is the opposite of what happened in 2016, when Trump’s vote share increased substantially as more candidates dropped out.
That is evident from a question that asked respondents to identify their second-choice candidate. DeSantis led that question with 31 percent. Tellingly, Trump was the second choice of only 10 percent, and most of that came from DeSantis supporters. Only 7 percent of those who backed someone other than Trump or DeSantis named the former president as their second choice. DeSantis could narrow the gap considerably if he can force a two-person race.
Trump could still win in this scenario, but it would likely be a tough fight. Only 5 percent of undecided voters named Trump as their second choice, whereas 31 percent chose moderates: former Wyoming representative Liz Cheney, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie or Sununu. An additional 20 percent had no second choice. Those voters will face a painful choice to waste their vote, abstain or back DeSantis in a Trump-DeSantis contest.
These voters clearly do not like Trump. Respondents were asked what one word they use to describe Trump and DeSantis. Those who chose neither man in a multicandidate field used words to describe Trump such as “arrogant,” “obnoxious,” “incompetent” or an expletive. They described DeSantis using words such as “competent,” “strong,” “unknown” or “undecided.” DeSantis’s challenge is to give these voters a clear and positive opinion of him while reinforcing their sharply negative views toward Trump.
The governor can do that if he runs as a competent winner. Voters who back neither Trump nor DeSantis overwhelmingly pick “competence” and “can beat Joe Biden” as the primary candidate attributes they value. They also view DeSantis as someone who will “stand up to woke values,” a highly prized attribute in the party. Pollsters refer to this as “issue ownership,” and it often presages movement on ballot questions. James Johnson, J.L. Partners’ chief pollster, says this plus some of the underlying data could “shift the dial away from Trump” once DeSantis launches his campaign in earnest.
Fortunately for Trump, 71 percent of his voters said their mind was made up, suggesting the former president starts with a base of about 36 percent of the total vote. That’s nearly identical to the 35 percent he received when he easily won the 2016 primary. Trump clearly has a large loyalist base.
DeSantis’s backing is currently much softer. Only 29 percent of DeSantis backers say their mind is made up; 66 percent say they could still be persuaded to back someone else. Since 41 percent of first-round DeSantis backers say Trump is their second choice, it’s clear many soft DeSantis supporters are Trump-friendly. This is why Trump and DeSantis are waging a war over who is best-positioned to endorse MAGA themes: DeSantis has no chance to beat Trump if he loses support from those who like Trump but are willing to look elsewhere.
DeSantis will have to walk a narrow path between wooing Trump-friendly voters and attracting decidedly non-Trump ones. That’s a tough challenge, and he might not be up to the task. But the fact such an avenue is open explains why Trump is attacking him harshly. His team can see what this poll suggests: DeSantis will likely grow stronger the longer he remains viable.
