Opinion | With this debt limit deal, Congress has beclowned itself

In exchange, Congress would expand spending on defense and veterans’ programs; leave Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and tax rates untouched; keep most other domestic spending roughly flat; trim funding for the Internal Revenue Service; modestly amend the permitting process for energy projects; and tweak the existing work requirements in the food-stamp program.

We’re still waiting on details, of course. But from what we know so far, this much-ballyhooed “deal” doesn’t seem terribly different from whatever budget agreement would have materialized anyway later this year, during the usual annual appropriations process, under divided government. To President Biden’s credit, the most objectionable ransoms that Republicans had been demanding are all gone. For example, there are no longer sharp cuts to safety-net programs, nor measures to effectively block all agency regulations nor new work requirements for Medicaid.

The proposed legislation might not be great, but it’s probably fine. Certainly it’s preferable to some alternatives many of us feared.

The Post’s View: The debt deal is done. Scrapping the debt limit is long overdue.

On the other hand: What was the point of all this drama, exactly?

Yes, we have (fingers crossed) avoided a dreaded default. Which is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. Meanwhile, the U.S. government, prodded by House Republicans, has spent the past few months beclowning itself before the rest of the world.

China and Russia have benefited from our obvious fiscal dysfunction, portraying the United States as an unstable democracy and unreliable economic partner. Discussions at the Group of Seven meetings were hijacked by concerns over the global fallout of a possible U.S. default. Biden had to cut short his diplomatic trip to Asia so he could prevent Republicans from throwing a temper tantrum, further undermining U.S. efforts to repair relations with our allies.

The U.S. government also might have already incurred higher borrowing costs, of as-yet-unknown amounts, as markets fretted in recent weeks over whether Uncle Sam might stiff any creditors. Delays in raising the debt limit in 2011 led to an increase in the Treasury Department’s borrowing costs of about $1.3 billion that fiscal year alone, a Government Accountability Office analysis found at the time.

There also might be longer-term reputational and financial costs thanks to this episode, particularly if we’ve now set ourselves up for another hostage crisis two years hence. (This is precisely what happened after the 2011 showdown was “resolved.”)

And to what end? To get minimal changes to fiscal policies that probably would have happened anyway?

This not-quite-cataclysmic-but-still-corrosive outcome assumes, of course, that the Biden-McCarthy agreement actually passes and the U.S. government doesn’t beclown itself further.

Which might or might not be a reasonable assumption.

McCarthy’s margin in the House remains paper-thin, and his far-right flank is already looking for ways to tank the deal. At least seven House Republicans have pledged not to vote for the forthcoming legislation, some in more colorful terms than others. (South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman called it “insanity”; North Carolina Rep. Dan Bishop tweeted a vomiting emoji.) Maybe some House Democrats could offset these likely Republican defectors, but that’s not guaranteed, given concerns from the progressive wing of the Democratic caucus over some modest changes to the food-stamp program.

There might well be problems getting the bill through the Senate, too.

Though the Senate is controlled by Democrats, the bill would require at least a few Republican votes to overcome procedural hurdles. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) has already signaled his intentions to obstruct the process. Meanwhile, former Trump official Russ Vought (among other MAGA movement intellectuals) has been counseling lawmakers that defaulting on our debt wouldn’t be so terrible after all.

Except it absolutely would be.

We have about a week left before we hit the expected “X-date,” when the U.S. government becomes unable to pay all its bills in full and on time. This tentative agreement needs to get written up and voted on as quickly as possible. We cannot afford any further delays, and yet delays might be in the offing.

Recent sturm and drang have, at best, left America’s long-term fiscal challenges largely unchanged and tarnished our global reputation. At worst — well, I’d rather not contemplate that scenario just yet.