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Is it just me or is 2024 starting to feel a lot like 2016?
As more Republican hopefuls join the race to be the party’s presidential nominee next year, it’s reminiscent of the 2016 cycle, when 17 candidates were vying to win. That crowded field of traditional candidates allowed someone like Donald Trump to rise to the top.
This time around, former Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas, is the latest to join the fray of 11 other declared candidates. Hurd is a former CIA officer and a moderate Republican who has not held back his direct criticism of Trump – unlike some of the other GOP contenders who seem more fearful to speak critically of the former president.
Hurd’s an interesting candidate. But the question I have to ask (and what I’ve wondered about most of the candidates who’ve entered this race) is: Does anyone have what it takes to topple Trump?
Trump’s lead isn’t dissipating
Polls certainly aren’t always an accurate reflection of what Americans want. But they do remain the best guess of where voters are leaning.
And now, Republican voters are backing Trump by a margin of 30 points. Among the declared primary candidates, Trump regularly receives about 50% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has remained the next closest challenger, but his numbers are mired around 21%.
DeSantis’ strategy may work:Social conservatism is on the rise. Maybe DeSantis is on to something with anti-‘woke’ fight.
After officially getting in the race, DeSantis’ support hasn’t jumped as his campaign must have hoped.
Other candidates are stuck in single digits or below, even well-known names such as former Vice President Mike Pence.
Is there still hope?
For those conservatives who are sick of the drama, indictments and never-ending rehashing of the past that surrounds Trump, these numbers are discouraging.
All is not lost, however.
It’s still very early, and a lot can change before the primaries begin early next year. Or even after. We’ve not even had the first debate.
“I think this race is going to take a number of twists and turns,” says David Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University in Michigan. “And Trump may still win. He’s probably still the favorite, but to say that this is over is I think ignoring what American politics is usually like.”
Trump is stuck in the past.Other GOP candidates offer conservatives a brighter future.
Just look at how 2020 played out for Joe Biden. His candidacy was declared all but dead after his poor showing in the first few contests. But then he rallied.
Similarly, in July 2015, then-candidate Trump was polling at just 12% and trailing former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.
Of course, the dynamics are different this time around. Trump is now a former president who has cemented a following within the GOP. The challenge he represents is unique to this race.
Candidates must sell themselves
The country already knows Trump, so the other candidates have an opportunity to sell their message to voters and why they deserve the chance to be president.
Republican strategist and presidential communications adviser Alice Stewart recently observed on NPR that candidates must now work on distancing themselves from Trump.
The challenge is to appeal to conservatives and independents without alienating the Trump base, and the polls are showing that won’t be easy.
As Stewart said, a candidate like DeSantis should take this time to get his message out and focus on how he brings a culture of winning – a contrast to the culture of losing that’s surrounded Trump the past few years.
And DeSantis has also been selling himself as a candidate who could serve for two terms and get more done – something Trump would no longer be able to do.
That’s a nod to the future, and Republican candidates who aim to unseat Trump’s lead are smart to embrace that message.
Ingrid Jacques is a columnist at USA TODAY. Contact her at ijacques@usatoday.com or on Twitter: @Ingrid_Jacques
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