Stock market today: Stocks edge higher with Powell back in spotlight


US stocks rose on Thursday, staying upbeat ahead of a second day of closely tracked testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Techs took the lead again with a 0.7% gain for the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) futures, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) added 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.5%, after all three gauges ended the previous session in the green.

Stocks rose as the market assessed Powell’s first day of questioning by lawmakers on the economy and monetary policy, which brought no bad news or surprises. The Fed chief stuck to repeating policymakers’ message that they’re in no hurry to ease policy, though he did say rate cuts are likely to come this year.

Meanwhile, gold (GC=F) rose for the fifth day, hitting a fresh high above $2,160 as the prospect of a rate cut gave fresh impetus to the record-setting rally.

Powell appeared before the senate on Thursday morning, answering lawmakers’ questions. Investors have turned to the Fed Chair’s testimony for more clarity and further clues on rate-cut timing.

Initial jobless claims released on Thursday came in unchanged at 217,000 for the week ending March 2, slightly above the consensus expectation of 216,000. Continuing claims registered just above 1.9 million, about 8,000 higher from its prior print.

Updates on consumer credit due later will also feed into their calculations ahead of the crucial monthly jobs report on Friday.

Among corporates, shares of Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) plunged over 26% after the lingerie maker’s sales guidance fell short of expectations.

Live6 updates

  • Nvidia stock touches new record, surpasses $900 level

    Nvidia (NVDA) stock gained more than 2% on Thursday, touching new all-time highs. Shares of the AI darling surpassed the $900 level to hit a peak of $909.92 each during the morning session.

    Nvidia is up 88% year-to-date. The semiconductor giant has been the best performer among the “Magnificent 7” stocks this year.

    Social media giant Meta (META) also hit new highs on Thursday. The stock is up 46% year-to-date.

  • Stocks open higher ahead of Fed Chair’s second day of testimony

    The major averages gained on Thursday ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s second day of testimony before congress.

    The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.7%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also ticked up 0.5%.

    The rise comes a day after Jerome Powell was questioned by lawmakers on the economy and monetary policy. Powell reiterated that policymakers are in no rush to ease policy, but rate cuts are likely to come this year. Friday’s jobs report will provide investors with clues on the timeline for when rate cut could come.

    Meanwhile bitcoin (BTC-USD) hovered above $67,000 on Thursday after hitting fresh highs earlier this week.

  • NYCB lost 7% of deposits in one month, highlighting challenges of new rescue

    New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) lost 7% of its deposits over the span of a month, underscoring the challenges facing a new investor group led by Steve Mnuchin as it outlined its turnaround strategy Thursday.

    Yahoo Finance’s David Hollerith reports the bank’s disclosure in an investor presentation shows total deposits had dropped to $77.2 billion as of March 5, compared with $83 billion that it had on Feb. 5.

    Roughly 80% of its deposits are currently backstopped by insurance from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, while 20% are uninsured. It lost a $7.8 billion in uninsured deposits over the last month.

    The disclosure came one day after NYCB made a dramatic attempt to regain investor confidence by announcing a new CEO and a $1 billion infusion from a group led by Mnuchin, a former US Treasury Secretary and Goldman Sachs partner.

    NYCB shares were relatively flat in pre-market on Thursday after popping more than 7% in the prior session.

    Read more here.

  • In the penalty box for a long time: Victoria’s Secret

    The Amazon (AMZN) bra-buying trade.

    Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) truly had a disastrous earnings day last night, not unlike what happened at fellow mall dweller Foot Locker (FL) just a few hours earlier. Shares of the intimate apparel player are crashing almost 30% in the pre-market, and it’s the right move.

    Management cited no improvement in sales trends in February from the fourth quarter’s 6% decline.

    JP Morgan analyst Matt Boss — who downgraded VSCO today — added the below section into his research note to clients that caught my attention. It appears VSCO is losing further market share to Amazon, a battle the company is unlikely to win. The problem is structural, in my view.

    “Worth noting on the intimates industry data, management cited the Sports Bra category outpacing Non-Sport (i.e. Structured Bras), with the broader Intimates total addressable market split 30% Sports Bras vs. 70% Non-Sport (relative to VSCO over-indexing to Non-Sport bras currently). To that end, management noted the overall intimates market down mid-single-digits in 4Q reflected a shift towards Value/Amazon as a result of a challenged consumer, in addition to sportswear players such as Lululemon (LULU) taking share in the Sports Bra category.”

    Despite the terrible quarters from VSCO/FL, there are retailers in the mall that are winning.

    Take a look below at what Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) CEO Fran Horowitz told me after another quarter of double-digit sales gains on Wednesday.

  • Today’s eye-popping analysis of the day…

    Maybe it’s time to revisit the Microsoft (MSFT) sell-off.

    Over the last 25 trading days, Microsoft shares are off by 0.4% compared to a 4% advance for the S&P 500. The broader Mag 7 has been trading on the shaky side of late, and Microsoft hasn’t been immune.

    Some new projections from EvercoreISI analyst Kirk Materne on Microsoft’s AI opportunity could reawaken the bull case.

    Here’s what he said in a new note to clients today:

    “When aggregating our bottoms up Gen AI analysis and taking a five year view, we now estimate Gen AI could drive ~$82.5 billion in incremental revenue in CY28 for Microsoft based on our ‘base case’ scenario, which represents a 24% uplift to our CY28 revenue estimate (assuming a 9% revenue CAGR from ’23-’28 for ‘core’ Microsoft). This would also represent $5.10 in incremental EPS assuming a 45% incremental net margin – just below incremental margins in prior years. Our ‘bull case’ scenario indicates an incremental revenue opportunity of $142.8 billion and $12.07 in incremental EPS. Our updated CY27 incremental AI revenue estimate of $54.6 billion is $4.2 billion higher than our prior ‘base case’ forecast from June 2023. Bottom line: The AI monetization opportunity is off to a good start but we are still in the very earnings and based on our analysis, we expect Gen AI will keep an upward bias on Microsoft’s revenue and EPS estimates for the foreseeable future.”

    Materne rates Microsoft at out-perform with a $475 price target, 17% above current levels.

  • Deutsche Bank gets on board the bitcoin rocket ship

    All aboard.

    The Deutsche Bank team is out with a note today looking at five reasons why bitcoin prices have a lot more room to run. It’s too early in the day to put you back to sleep by detailing all five reasons, so let me zero in on one: April’s potential bitcoin halving event.

    The investment bank is calling attention to the bullish action in bitcoin around prior halving events:

    “In the 30 days prior to the November 2012 halving, prices rose by 5%. A more substantial 13% gain was seen ahead of the July 2016 event. Most recently, there was a sizable 27% price increase in the month before the May 2020 halving.”

    A helpful timeline chart to see how this has historically played out:

    The bitcoin bulls await another halving in April.

    The bitcoin bulls await another halving in April. (Deutsche Bank)



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