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As if on cue, a tropical depression formed in the Gulf of Mexico on the first day of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
No coastal watches or warnings are associated with the system, known as Tropical Depression Two. At 11 p.m. Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said the depression had sustained winds of 35 mph as it moved slowly southward in the Gulf. It was centered about 290 miles west-northwest of Fort Myers, Florida, and is expected to remain offshore of Florida.
A tropical depression is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less, according to the National Weather Service.
Even though the depression could see “modest strengthening” overnight and become a tropical storm by Friday morning, the center’s hurricane specialists expect it to weaken on Friday as it encounters greater wind shear and dry air. The forecast calls for it to become a remnant low-pressure system on Saturday as it approaches the western end of Cuba.
If it does manage to take advantage of the warm waters in the Gulf and strengthen into a tropical storm with sustained winds of 39 mph or greater, it would become Tropical Storm Arlene.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the system Thursday, the hurricane center said.
Why is the depression moving south?
For Floridians, it’s very unusual to see a forecast with a storm tracking southward in the Gulf of Mexico, but weak, disorganized systems can keep forecasters guessing.
“Marginal systems outside the peak of the season in marginal environments can move in mysterious ways,” said James Franklin, a retired chief of the hurricane specialist unit at the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasts, definitions, preparation:Everything to know about hurricane season 2023.
Hurricane season is underway:Here’s the list of names for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
Heavy rainfall, flooding possible across Florida – but not from the depression
Locally heavy rainfall is possible across much of Florida through the weekend, the hurricane center said.
However, weather advisories for heavy rain along Florida’s east coast, including a flood watch for some South Florida counties, aren’t related to the system in the Gulf, forecasters said. The rain is coming from “a plume of deep, rich moisture” over the region, said Zachery Law, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne.
Air flow over the region is also moving very slowly, if at all, so larger amounts of rain can accumulate, Law said.
Through Saturday, a general 1-2 inches of rain is likely to fall on the northern part of the Florida Peninsula, with 2-4 inches and locally higher amounts over the southern half, according to AccuWeather.
Flash flooding is possible in some areas where areas where thunderstorms stall or move very slowly for an hour or so, Weather.com said.
A flood watch is in effect for portions of Southeast and South Florida until Friday evening, the National Weather Service said. This includes the Miami and Fort Lauderdale metro areas.
Why would Arlene be the second storm of the season?
While the first named storm of the 2023 season will be Arlene, it will actually be the second storm of the season. A system in January was classified in May as a subtropical storm.
Since the classification came during a post analysis, it did not get a name and will be documented as “Unnamed.”
Forecast increases on first day of hurricane season
Top forecasters from Colorado State University slightly increased their forecast Thursday for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. They now predict 15 named storms, of which seven will be hurricanes. That’s up from their previous forecast of 13 and six.
The reason for the higher prediction is the near-record high water temperatures in the tropics, which support tropical storm and hurricane development. Those conditions will be doing battle with El Niño, a climate pattern in the Pacific. El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic, which tears apart storms.
The six-month 2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially began Thursday and lasts until Nov. 30.
When is hurricane season?:Here’s when hurricane season starts and what to expect in 2023
Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network
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