Global lithium production is estimated to have increased significantly by 19.7% in 2025 to reach 338,300 tonnes (t), supported by rising output from emerging producers such as Zimbabwe, Mali, and Argentina, alongside incremental growth from established producers, including China and Chile.
Looking ahead to 2026, global lithium output is expected to increase further by 15.0% to reach 389,100t, primarily supported by continued supply growth from Argentina, Australia, China, Mali, and Zimbabwe.
Argentina’s lithium output is projected to increase significantly by 42.5% in 2026 to 35,700t, driven by the continued ramp-up of the newly commissioned projects such as the 3Q project (September 2025), Mariana (February 2025), and Salar de Centenario–Ratones (December 2024). This growth momentum will be further supported by the planned start-up of the Hombre Muerto West mine and Sal de Oro Phase II, both of which are currently under construction.
China’s lithium mine output is expected to increase further by 16.9% to 68,500t in 2026. This growth will be underpinned by the continued ramp-up of the Lakkor Tso and Lijiagou projects, which commenced operations in 2025, along with ongoing expansions at the Xiangyuan mine.
Australia’s lithium output is expected to record a stronger rebound in 2026, with production projected to grow by 6% to reach 120,300t. This growth will be driven primarily by operational enhancements and capacity expansions at key mining sites. A major contributor will be the Kathleen Valley project, which completed its phased transition from open-pit mining to a fully underground operation on 21 December 2025, and is now ramping up production as planned. This transition is aimed at targeting higher-grade ore, improving operating margins, and enhancing long-term operational efficiency and sustainability.
Mali emerged as a new lithium producer in 2025, with first commercial output from the Goulamina and Bougouni lithium projects in Q1 2025. These projects are expected to underpin sustained production growth through 2035. The country’s lithium output is estimated to increase to 17,000t in 2026 from an estimated 11,300t in 2025, driven by the ongoing ramp-up of both projects.
Zimbabwe is estimated to produce 41,900t in 2026 from an estimated 37,600t in 2025, underpinned by the continued ramp-up of the Kamativi mine, which commenced production in 2024, and additional output from the Arcadia and Zulu projects.
Global lithium production is expected to grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% over the forecast period (2026-2035) to reach 792,800t by 2035.
