Wells Fargo resets gold price target for the rest of 2026

Gold is trading around $4,411 per ounce after falling roughly 17% since the start of March. Wells Fargo Investment Institute says that is exactly the kind of pullback investors should be buying.

The bank raised its 2026 year-end gold price target to $6,100 to $6,300 per ounce, up sharply from its previous forecast of $4,500 to $4,700. The revision represents a roughly 35% increase across the band. From current levels, the Wells Fargo target implies upside of roughly 38% to 43% by year-end.

The call was made when gold was still trading near $4,961. Gold has since fallen further, widening the gap between current prices and the target and reinforcing the bank’s message: buy the decline, not the highs.

“The prospect for lower short-term interest rates and the potential to hedge against accelerating policy surprises prompt us to raise our 2026 gold target,” the bank said in its note.

Lee added that gold had “traded over 30% above its 200-day moving average from January 22 to January 29, a difficult level to maintain and one that has often triggered profit-taking.” His view was that the correction was healthy and that the underlying drivers of the rally remain intact.

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Wells Fargo pointed to three structural forces behind the upgrade. First, the expectation for lower short-term interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold.

Second, continued central bank buying creates structural demand that does not depend on investor sentiment.

Third, what the bank called “accelerating policy surprises,” including tariffs, deregulation, and geopolitical uncertainty, increase demand for gold as a portfolio hedge.

Central bank demand is one of the most important pillars of the Wells Fargo thesis. Official sector buyers purchased roughly 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, matching 2022’s record and underscoring that the buying trend is structural rather than opportunistic. JPMorgan has set its own year-end target at $6,300, projecting central banks will acquire approximately 800 tonnes in 2026.

China’s central bank has been a key driver. The People’s Bank of China extended its gold buying streak to 15 consecutive months as of January 2026, with holdings rising to 74.19 million ounces.

The accumulation reflects a broader effort by emerging market central banks to diversify reserves away from dollar-denominated assets. Wells Fargo noted that such conditions should “encourage further central-bank buying” going forward.

Gold’s recent price trajectory puts the Wells Fargo call in sharp relief.

• Late January peak: Gold hit record highs above $5,600 per ounce before a sharp pullback began.

• Current price: Spot gold is trading around $4,411 per ounce, down roughly 17% since the start of March. From here, Wells Fargo’s target implies upside of roughly 38% to 43%.

• Fed factor: The Fed signaled only one rate cut for 2026, pushing real Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar, both of which have weighed on gold recently.

• The buy case: Wells Fargo analyst Edward Lee described the correction as “a healthy correction after an exceptionally strong run,” not the start of a structural reversal.

The more gold falls, the wider the gap between current prices and Wells Fargo’s target becomes. That is the essence of the bank’s “buy the dip” message.

Wells Fargo is not alone in its bullish view. Several major banks have clustered their 2026 year-end gold forecasts around the $6,000 to $6,300 range.

JPMorgan sits at $6,300, UBS at $6,200, and Wells Fargo at $6,100 to $6,300. Goldman Sachs is more conservative at $5,400.

HSBC has flagged significant downside risks if geopolitical tensions ease or fiscal conditions tighten, with a wide trading range of $3,950 to $5,050.

The consensus among the more bullish banks centers on the same core factors Wells Fargo cited: sustained central bank demand, the potential for Fed rate cuts, and elevated policy uncertainty.

The current pullback has only widened the gap between spot prices and those year-end targets.

Whether gold can close that gap by December depends heavily on whether the Fed pivots, whether central bank buying holds, and whether geopolitical risks remain elevated through the second half of the year.

Related: Veteran analyst drops surprising gold price prediction

This story was originally published by TheStreet on Mar 28, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.