When requested Friday about timing for ultimate passage of the protection coverage invoice, Senate Armed Services Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.) laughed and replied: “We got to wait until we get to the vote.”

The protection coverage invoice, first on the to-do checklist, might take up a lot of the primary week of December. The chamber additionally must fund the federal government previous Dec. 3. Under that timeline, Democrats aren’t anticipating the Senate to take up the social spending invoice till the second week of December, on the earliest.

And that’s assuming Manchin (D-W.Va.) agrees to maneuver ahead by then. Earlier this week, the important thing centrist didn’t point out whether or not he could be a “yes” vote for beginning debate. With an evenly divided Senate, Democrats can’t move the laws with out Manchin’s help.

“It’ll be done by the time we leave in December,” predicted Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) Friday. “We’re going to come back, we’ll try and wrap up the [defense policy bill]… and then we’ll move on to [the social spending bill]… This is going to be a wild December month.”

Timing for Biden’s signature laws can even rely on when the Senate parliamentarian will end the so-called “Byrd Bath” course of, beneath which she determines whether or not key parts of the invoice have direct budgetary impact and may subsequently move the Senate with a easy majority. Democrats will start presenting their arguments to the parliamentarian next week, in accordance with a Democratic aide.

Several provisions within the House invoice are anticipated to vary or get stripped solely within the Senate. House Democrats included a paid household go away provision, regardless of Manchin’s opposition to together with the coverage within the package deal. And the invoice’s immigration reform sections nonetheless have to move muster with the parliamentarian, who has axed Democrats different makes an attempt at together with immigration measures.

Senate Democrats are additionally divided over the House’s inclusion of a provision that raises the cap on native and state tax deductions, generally known as SALT, which primarily impacts high-cost states, corresponding to New York, New Jersey and California. That quantities to a major tax break from high-income earners, drawing ire from progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

“I hope Bernie changes the SALT tax,” stated Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who added that other than immigration reform and SALT, “90 percent of the bill is locked in.”

The House’s passage of the social spending invoice got here after months of negotiations between the White House, House progressives, Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). House Democrats acknowledged Friday that adjustments to the laws have been inevitable at this level, which implies the House must vote on the invoice once more.

“We’ve done what we think we can do,” stated House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). “The Senate will do what it’ll suppose it might do. And we’ll come collectively on behalf of the American folks and attempt to have a coordinated strategy as we go off into the longer term.”

Sarah Ferris and Nicholas Wu contributed to this report.

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