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I have Princeton slotted in as a No. 8 seed (which would tie 2015 for its highest seed in program history), but there’s enough wiggle room in the middle that the committee could feasibly place the Tigers on a higher or lower seed line. Wins over Oklahoma and Middle Tennessee, both tourney locks, should go a long way on top of finding success in the Ivy schedule. How the committee weighs competitiveness against Indiana and UCLA — losing both by single digits — could be a difference-maker in seeding. Regardless of where the Tigers end up, they should be feared in any matchup.
Princeton earned a No. 10 seed last season and went on to take down seventh-seeded NC State in the first round before going wire-to-wire against Utah in the Round of 32. It’s worth remembering that so much of making a run in March is luck, timing and chance. However, I can’t help thinking about how Princeton may be even more of a threat a year removed.
The Tigers bring the same defensive foundation as last season, and they’ve been a top 25 team in adjusted defensive rating last season and this season, per CBB Analytics. Their offensive consistency is the difference, finishing 29th in adjusted offensive rating this season compared to 70th in the country a season ago.
Princeton dominates the paint, scoring the fourth highest percentage of points in the paint in all of Division I. The Tigers are monstrous on the offensive glass, rebounding 39.2 percent of their own misses, the 12th highest mark in the country.
Ellie Mitchell, a multiyear winner of Ivy Defensive Player of the Year, is crucial to this, but it has been reinforced by the emergence of fellow senior Chet Nweke. Nweke has been solid as a rotation player, but she jumped into the starting lineup midway through Ivy play. She’s averaging over three rebounds per game in her 12 games as a starter, while bringing switchability and size on defense and quality decision-making.
Star guard Kaitlyn Chen has grown greatly as a facilitator this season, and freshman Skye Belker has brought a fantastic secondary scoring punch.
Sophomore Madison St. Rose is the reason to feel even more confident in Princeton.
She set the tone as Ivy Rookie of the Year last season and came up huge defensively in the NCAA Tournament. She’s blossomed into an effective three-level scorer and a star alongside Chen as she earned second-team All-Ivy honors.
Her deep shot is more consistent. She’s comfortable getting to her pull-up or playing out of the post. Few can contain her when she drives the lane, and her playmaking is growing as well. She’s one of the most versatile players in the conference, has a potential pro skill set and continues to come up big. Don’t be surprised when you hear her name during the tournament’s first weekend.
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