Ukraine has used US ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, officials in Moscow say, in a major escalation on the war’s 1000th day.
Russia said its forces shot down five of six missiles fired at a military facility in the western Bryansk region while debris of one hit the facility, causing no casualties or damage.
Ukraine said it had struck a Russian arms depot about 110km inside Russia and caused secondary explosions.
It did not specify what weapons it had used.
Two months before leaving office and in a major policy change, US for strikes inside Russia.
The approaching winter also presents new challenges in the ongoing conflict.
A building damaged by Russian shelling, in Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Region, eastern Ukraine. Credit: PA/Alamy
Since the start of the war, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has documented at least 11,743 civilians killed and 24,614 wounded in Ukraine.
The conflict has also displaced millions, with approximately 3.7 million people internally displaced and 6.5 million seeking refuge overseas.
Long-range missiles
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington said Biden’s timing in approving the missiles is unlikely to change the conflict’s trajectory.
“The decision comes late, and like other decisions in this vein, it may be too late to substantially change the course of the fighting,” he said.
“Long-range strikes were always one piece of the puzzle, and had been overly freighted with expectations in this war.”
On Tuesday, Russian officials said Ukraine had used US ATACMS missiles to strike their territory for the first time.
Russia said its forces shot down five of six missiles fired at a military facility in the western Bryansk region while debris of one hit the facility, causing no casualties or damage.
Ukraine said it had struck a Russian arms depot about 110km inside Russia and caused secondary explosions. It did not specify what weapons it had used.
Mass displacement as winter approaches
The UN has warned that any further attacks on Ukraine’s energy system could trigger a further wave of mass displacement as winter approaches.
UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine Matthias Schmale said Ukrainians are now more vulnerable than at any other winter during the conflict due to Russian strikes on its energy system and donor fatigue.
“The real concern is if they were to target the energy sector again, this could be a tipping point … for further mass movements, both inside the country and outside the country,” he said.
“Around 65 per cent of Ukraine’s own energy production is currently offline due to Russian strikes which is more than at this same point of the year in 2022 or 2023.”
Donald Trump’s relationship with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin has long been under scrutiny. Source: AP / Pablo Martinez Monsivais
How will a Trump presidency impact the war?
Donald Trump Jr has openly criticised the Biden administration’s move to allow US-supplied long-range missiles.
The son of the incoming US president slammed the decision on X, claiming the Democrats want to “make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace”.
In an interview earlier this week, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said although there was “no exact date”, the policy of the incoming Trump administration would see the war between Russia and Ukraine “end faster”.
During his 2024 campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly promised to end the Ukraine war swiftly if he were elected president. In a 2023 interview with Fox News, Trump said: “I would get a settlement in 24 hours,” further explaining that he could quickly broker a deal between the parties through tough negotiations.
Trump has framed this promise as a part of his, which focuses on reducing US involvement in conflicts abroad and ensuring that US resources are used to benefit the nation rather than support international military efforts.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.
All eyes on Moscow
Dr Matthew Sussex, a leading expert on Australian defence strategic policy from the Australian National University, said that while some hold out hope that Trump will prove a more steadfast friend to Ukraine than Biden, experts say there’s little evidence in his record to support it.
“By having promised to end the war in 24 hours, Trump will likely unveil a peace plan soon after taking office,” Sussex said.
“The question is whether Kyiv will negotiate. For instance, would it agree to losing swathes of territory and no NATO membership? That seems unlikely at the moment.”
But an even bigger question is whether Moscow will negotiate.
Sussex said there’s an incentive for Putin to stay away from the bargaining table, and compel Trump to extract maximum concessions that favour Moscow.
“My sense is that many European nations will want to help Ukraine stay in the fight, but their ability to keep up the momentum will depend a lot on their own ability to manufacture arms,” he said.
Since the start of the war, millions have been displaced.
When will it end?
Retired Australian Army major general Mick Ryan says for Ukraine the end may not be in sight without support from others including Australia.
“Ukraine’s prospects in this war, while shaped by their own narratives, rest on continued support — and a reset in strategy from its supporters in Europe, America and beyond,” he said.
“The path ahead cannot be laid entirely at the feet of the Ukrainian government and people.”
Additional reporting by Reuters news agency
