The approaching resolution to the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes has international baseball scouts and executives bracing for unusual activity.
“It could get crazy,” an experienced international evaluator said this week.
Sasaki, the highly sought-after 23-year-old pitcher from Japan, has shaken the international market. Sasaki can only be signed through each team’s international bonus pools, which range from roughly $5.1 million to $7.5 million. MLB’s international signing period opens every year on Jan. 15. Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe said he anticipates his client signing at some point between that date and Jan. 23, when Sasaki’s negotiation window closes.
The Padres, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Giants, and Rangers are among the teams that reportedly received an in-person meeting, with the Toronto Blue Jays joining that list last week. But the fallout from Sasaki’s decision will affect the entire international market.
The wait is causing clubs to maneuver in atypical ways so close to signing day, either by delaying commitments with other prospects, completely reneging on big-money agreements or weighing trades involving international cash.
The Padres informed some players who were expected to be part of their upcoming signing class that they were free to seek other deals, league sources said. The Dodgers have told players to consider signing as part of next year’s class if the team lands Sasaki and can’t acquire enough international bonus pool money via trade to honor their handshake agreements, league sources said. (The sources said the Padres have had similar conversations with prospects about potentially waiting until 2026.) This has not stopped turnover within Los Angeles’ signing class. Dominican shortstop prospect Darell Morel was set to sign with the Dodgers once the 2025 international signing period opened this week, but decided Friday to instead sign with the Pirates for around $1.8 million, league sources confirmed. Baseball America first reported Morel’s change of plans, noting he is set to get twice the amount of money he would’ve received from Los Angeles.
It’s possible other clubs have acted similarly — or that they soon will.
“It’s absolutely insane right now trying to figure out who is actually available,” an international executive said. “It’s hard to tell. It’s a balance of acknowledging deals in place but also not wanting to miss out if someone is actually available. Plus agents are also using the situation to get more money with a new club than the one they originally agreed with. And there’s been more dialogue about international money trades, too. … It’s a lot.”
International prospects can’t officially join MLB organizations until they’re eligible to sign, but agreements are made between teenagers and clubs years in advance. Such deals are technically forbidden, and not binding. But that is why each year so many 16- and 17-year-old players, many from Latin America, end up signing with teams on the first possible date. Thus, the reality is teams have less money available than the amount in their bonus pools.
Teams bidding on Sasaki hope he will arrive ready to be a frontline starter, and as such he projects to make the major leagues much sooner than any prospect with a pre-existing verbal commitment with a club. Therefore, organizations would view adding him as a special opportunity.
Sasaki was posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball last month. Sasaki could’ve waited until after turning 25 years old to sign for more money and not be restricted by international bonus pool allowances. That’s what Yoshinobu Yamamoto did, and he signed for $325 million last winter. Sasaki didn’t want to wait, though, for a chance at playing in MLB.
For more than a year, some teams have prepared for the chance that Sasaki would be available. When rumors of the possibility picked up steam, clubs, including the Dodgers, backed out of agreements with players for previous classes, not knowing if Sasaki would be part of the 2024 signing period or the 2025 signing period, league sources said. That is partly why the Dodgers ended up with an excess of unused bonus money in the 2024 signing period.
In last year’s signing class, the Padres had their money committed to shortstop Leodalis De Vries, largely considered the best international prospect in 2024. For this period, however, the Padres made fewer agreements than they normally would because of Sasaki’s presence in the market, league sources said.
The Padres have a $6,261,000 bonus pool this year, while the Dodgers are at $5,146,200. Some international executives from other clubs suggested the Sasaki fallout could end up being anti-climatic since the Padres and Dodgers, considered the favorites for the right-hander, are believed to each have at least a couple million dollars available without breaking any deals. Still, it all depends on just how much Sasaki is willing to accept from a club (Wolfe declined to answer specific questions regarding any financial figures during a recent video conference with reporters).
Given the bonus pool restrictions, money will not be the driving factor in Sasaki’s choice, but it’s nonetheless an interesting element in the process, especially since his team in Japan receives payment via a posting fee.
“You’re operating under the assumption that they’re just going to give him the full freight,” said one executive familiar with the international market who requested anonymity to speak freely. “I don’t think that’s necessarily what happens. I think there is a world where Sasaki goes, ‘Hey, I’m going to make enough money in endorsement and other things that the difference, in my world, between $2.5 million or $3 million and $5 million isn’t that great.’ There is a scenario where he does not sign for the entire bonus pool allotment.
“That being said, Joel Wolfe is an agent. His team in Japan is also making money on this deal. They are going to seek the entire bonus pool. That would be my guess. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he accepts less. But I think it is more realistic that he does take someone’s entire bonus pool.”
Thus, there is a chance for clubs to maneuver commitments and cash.
From a club’s perspective, telling players with verbal agreements that they can look elsewhere until the Sasaki situation is resolved could be seen as an act of transparency. Essentially, clubs like the Padres are telling prospects to wait a few days into the period to sign or hold off entirely until the 2026 signing period. The problem is it’s already so late. While it’s not completely uncommon for teams to break agreements with players, generally speaking, if an agreement exists this late into the process with signing day less than a week away, a signing is expected.
If such deals are broken, the players will likely need to accept reduced bonuses from other teams, if they can find openings at all, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal previously wrote. This could create a ripple effect if players sign with new clubs who then have to break agreements they had previously made in order to fit the new deals into their bonus pool.
“There are probably a handful of teams that have money and have budgeted and planned to be part of this process,” the executive familiar with the international market said. “They’re keeping a close eye on the favorites and their players. Now, they’re not going to scout them. They’re not going to watch those players. But they’re paying attention. And agents and trainers aren’t stupid, either. They’re aware that their commitments are very much in jeopardy with some of the reported teams that are on Sasaki’s list.”
One way to add more international bonus pool money is through trade. A club can acquire 60 percent of its original pool, but can only make trades in increments of $250,000 ($250,000, $500,000, $750,000, etc.) unless it is trading away its entire pool. Teams can only make trades during the signing period to which the pool space applies, so no trades involving international cash can be made until Jan. 15.
“We’re sitting quietly, waiting for teams to call us, because we have international money that we’d be happy to trade, but we value that money,” said another executive familiar with the international market who requested anonymity to speak freely. “If we’re trading it to you to get Sasaki, that should garner some sort of return that has legitimate value.”
(Photo: Eric Espada / Getty Images)
