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Even though the Milwaukee Bucks started the season 9-0, frustration set in early for the Bucks.
Some of it was public, such as when Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo shoved a ladder in Philadelphia while he was trying to practice free throws after a loss to the 76ers. The Bucks were 11-4 at the time.
Some of it was more private, such as the bristling among players about prickly Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer. Some of that is natural in an 82-game season.
And injuries that sidelined key players such as Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton disrupted portions of the season.
Wins resolve some of that. The Bucks had a 16-game winning streak from Jan. 23-March 1, and they finished with the NBA’s best record at 58-24 and claimed the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
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The Bucks’ season fizzled, ending with a stunning and disappointing series loss to the eighth-seeded Miami Heat, who finished the first-round series with a 128-126 overtime victory in Game 5 on Wednesday. It’s just the sixth time in league history that an eight-seed has defeated a No. 1 seed, and the first time since Philadelphia defeated Chicago in 2012.
For the Bucks, it’s the second consecutive early exit after winning the championship in 2021. They lost to the Boston Celtics in last season’s conference semifinals and now the franchise faces a crucial offseason.
How did the Bucks lose this series?
The simple version of the Bucks’ demise against Miami: They ran into Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Buckets was phenomenal in this series, scoring at least 30 points in four of the five games, including 56 in Game 4 and 42 in Game 5.
Miami was a poor shooting team during the regular season – No. 26 from the field and No. 27 on 3-pointers. The Heat found their shooting touch against Milwaukee, shooting better than 50% from the field and 45% on 3-pointers.
The Bucks wasted a 12-point fourth-quarter lead in Game 4 and squandered a 16-point fourth-quarter advantage and an eight-point lead in the final 3:18 of the fourth in Game 5. Milwaukee also made just 28-of-45 free throws, including 10-for-23 from Antetokounmpo, in the series finale.
Do the Bucks blow up the roster?
The playoff shortcomings in 2022 and 2023 necessitate changes, but multiple league executives who talked to USA TODAY Sports under the condition of anonymity so they could talk freely made it clear: you don’t blow up a team with Antetokounmpo still in his prime.
Antetokounmpo, 28, was bothered by injuries this season, including knee trouble and the bruised back that sidelined him in Game 2 and 3 against Miami.
But he still dominated, averaging a career-high 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists and shooting 55.3% from the field in 63 regular-season games.
He is one of three finalists for MVP and will make All-NBA this season.
Antetokounmpo produces at an elite level and remains a player who can lead a team to a championship. A team doesn’t get a player like Antetokounmpo often, and teams want to maximize championship windows because they don’t last forever.
Ownership, including new Bucks partial owner Jimmy and Dee Haslam (also owners of the Cleveland Browns), understand that.
What are the important roster decisions?
General manager Jon Horst has managed the roster with finesse, and the Bucks have the most regular-season victories in the NBA the past five seasons. He has had the benefit of spending money on salaries that put the Bucks in the luxury tax.
The Haslams provide an infusion of cash and have shown a willingness to spend on the Browns. The Bucks in all likelihood will be a luxury-tax paying team next season, too.
Antetokounmpo is under contract for next season at $45.6 million and he is also extension-eligible in September. Holiday, Portis, Connaughton, Grayson Allen, Jevon Carter and MarJon Beauchamp are also under contract for 2023-24.
Brook Lopez, Jae Crowder, Joe Ingles and Wesley Matthews are key players who are free agents.
The two big question marks are Lopez and Middleton, who has a $40.3 million player option on the final year of his deal in 2023-24.
Lopez is 35 but had a tremendous season. He was a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year, will be an All-Defensive team selection and is versatile offensively. If the Bucks lose Lopez, they’re not as good.
Coming off a knee injury last season, Middleton played in just 33 games this season. His minutes per game dropped and his 3-point shooting percentage fell by nearly six percentage points season over season.
It’s difficult to turn down $40 million per season, but Middleton could decline his player option and re-sign for less money per season but more years on the deal with Milwaukee or another team. A sign-and-trade is possible, but any move involving a key player seemingly would require Antetokounmpo’s approval.
Regardless, Middleton has been an important part of Milwaukee’s high-level success, and he’s not easily replaceable.
Horst will also try to improve on the fringes.
Will Coach Mike Budenholzer return?
Rumblings about Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer’s demise have existed for a few seasons. There is belief among league execs USA TODAY Sports spoke with under the condition of anonymity who believe Budenholzer’s job is in danger after losing in the first round with the best regular-season team in the league.
Championship coaches don’t stick around forever. The Toronto Raptors just dismissed Nick Nurse, who led the Raptors to the 2019 title, and last offseason, the Los Angeles Lakers fired Frank Vogel, who coached the Lakers to the 2020 title.
There are just three current coaches who have been with the same team for at least the past 10 seasons. Coaches wear out their welcome eventually.
But there’s another side to the Bucks’ situation: Which available coach is better?
Budenholzer is one of the top coaches in the league (Coach of the Year in 2015). Like any coach, he has flaws, but he knows Xs and Os, has a definitive philosophy on how he wants to play and gets player buy-in.
Whatever the Bucks do – keep Budenholzer or fire him, run it back or make massive changes – alienating Antetokounmpo is not an option.
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