Dinking and dunking to success? NFL QBs are using short, quick passes at a record pace

Sean McDermott was chatting with caddie Ted Scott over the summer about strategy and sports psychology when Scott mentioned how his boss, PGA star Scottie Scheffler, has adopted the mindset of just trying to hit singles around the course. “Scottie Singles” has now won a pair of majors, including this year’s Masters, and has been ranked the No. 1 player in the world for more than two years.

The strategy resonated so much with the Buffalo Bills head coach that he relayed the story to his star quarterback, Josh Allen, who is an avid golfer. Allen immediately saw the connection.

Allen, like many quarterbacks around the league, has been forced to adapt to the NFL’s changing defensive schemes. It wasn’t long ago when Allen was Buffalo’s power hitter, ripping chunk plays from the pocket on the seams and go routes to the outside. Now he’s often looking across at two deep safeties positioned to eliminate the big play, leaving him content to be a slap hitter: Singles up the middle on short, quick passes until the Bills reach the red zone. 

“It’s understanding that when I do take risks, that they’re calculated, and the reward is well worth it,” Allen told The Athletic. “I haven’t thrown the ball too many times downfield.”

He’s not alone. 

It has only been two weeks, but 31 percent of Allen’s targets have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, according to TruMedia data, putting him well above a fast-rising league average. 

More than 24 percent of the league’s throws this year have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, while quarterbacks are averaging 7.4 air yards per attempt. That’s the highest percentage, and the lowest air yards, through the first two weeks since TruMedia began tracking such data in 2006. 

The trickle-down effect is deflated passing numbers across the league. The only quarterback to throw for at least 250 yards in each of the first two games this season? The Las Vegas Raiders’ Gardner Minshew.

Some of the game’s biggest names — and arms — have been corralled by stingy defenses willing to give up the underneath to protect the over the top. It has forced quarterbacks like Allen to stay patient.

“When we get into the red zone we’ll find more ways to get exotic and score because it is a little harder down there,” Allen said. “But we’re not going to do anything to put the ball in harm’s way up until that point.”

4th down? Make that a touchdown.

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Allen’s percentage of throws at or behind the line has doubled from 2021 when he was at 15 percent through two games. That was the year he and the Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes combined for one of the most explosive playoff games in history — 707 passing yards and 78 points. It’s the game that may have broken the league. 

Almost immediately, defenses returned to two high safety looks the following season. It has successfully slowed not just scoring, but ball movement as well. 

Mahomes connected with Rashee Rice on a 44-yard touchdown in Kansas City’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but otherwise felt like he missed on other opportunities down the middle of the field.  

“Teams are just going to make you drive the entire field … and try to not let you score in the red zone,” he said. “But there are opportunities out there and you have to execute at a higher level. There’s not as many as I’ve had previously.”

Mahomes has thrown 38 percent of his passes to targets at or behind the line of scrimmage. That’s the third-highest for any quarterback this year and it’s his highest percentage through the first two weeks of any season. If it holds, it would easily be the highest percentage of his career. Last year, 26 percent of Mahomes’ pass targets were at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Source: TruMedia

Playing two high safeties has been around for generations but waned in popularity over time. More recently, teams were trying to replicate Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” defense with good cornerbacks on the outside, a single post safety with range and an aggressive front seven. 

There are still those who play that way, but it exposes too many defenses to deep shots and big plays. In response, a number of teams have favored split safeties with a zone defense that leaves open the underneath but protects against chunk plays. It forces offenses to operate within a 5-to-10-yard box. 

It could also explain why safeties were so devalued in free agency last winter. Safeties lost more than $100 million in shed salary during the offseason, according to Over The Cap. Great ball skills from the safety position aren’t as valuable as they once were. 

“You have to be patient,” Bills veteran backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky said. “Every quarterback is like a gunslinger. You want to throw it deep. Everybody loves the long ball, but defenses are really keying on that. The one thing that can get a defender and a coordinator in trouble is the ball being thrown over your head. So let the ball underneath and make tackles.”

Source: TruMedia

The short, quick passing game is a natural evolution from college offenses that have been doing it for years. Many young NFL quarterbacks ran this style in college and have a comfort level with it.

It can also protect weaker offensive lines against edge rushers that have never been as fast and powerful across the league as they are today. 

There was a time not long ago when mobile quarterbacks favored run-pass option plays that allowed the quarterback to decide what to do based on scheme. But that comes with the risk of an illegal man downfield penalty. By throwing it quickly down the line of scrimmage, it gets the ball into the playmakers’ hands while allowing the line and other receivers to begin blocking right away. 

“As teams get smaller and faster on defense, there’s less opportunity downfield,” Allen said. “Meanwhile, these D-ends and D-tackles are getting more physical and freakish. The time to throw is probably down. That’s without knowing the statistics, but from watching games, the time from snap to pressure is probably the shortest it’s been.”

Source: TruMedia

Allen is correct — sort of. The pressure rate is actually lower than it was at this point last year, but the sack rate through two weeks is the highest since TruMedia began tracking the data in 2006. 

A simple explanation could be the shorter route concepts are allowing quarterbacks to get rid of the ball faster, but on plays that need more depth on their routes, edge rushers and blitzers are getting home more often.

“What we’re seeing now is off the jet motion, you’re seeing true route concepts now. That didn’t exist before,” said Browns safety Rodney McLeod, who is in his 13th season. “At first it was just, ‘That guy is going to the flat’ and he was used to affect communication, move the defender’s eyes. Now it’s, ‘OK, we’re going to make him involved in the route concept. That’s an additional layer. You see that with the (Kyle) Shanahan tree. Shanahan, (Sean) McVay, (Matt) LaFleur. It works when you have guys like Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel and those guys who are quick.”

Yet interestingly, Shanahan’s quarterback has the fewest percentage of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage this year. Brock Purdy has done it just 11 percent of the time, tied with the Indianapolis Colts’ Anthony Richardson. 

Source: TruMedia

They are the exception today, not the norm. 

“It’s just the way the league is trending,” Trubisky said. “As a quarterback and an offense, you’ve just got to game plan for that and take what the defense gives you. If that means short completions, then that’s what you’ve got to do.”

— The Athletic’s Nate Taylor and Dianna Russini contributed to this report

(Top image: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Megan Briggs / Getty Images; Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)