Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Lamar Jackson and a sizzling MVP race: Sando’s Pick Six

The MVP race hit another gear Sunday night.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen frolicked in prime time at the San Francisco 49ers’ expense, carving snow angels on the field with coach Sean McDermott, not long after Saquon Barkley and Lamar Jackson shared the NFL’s late-afternoon spotlight.

No running back has won MVP honors in more than a decade, and if modern NFL math is your religion, none should contend for the award again, because passing is king.

How much fun is that?

When Barkley ran off the right side for a 25-yard touchdown to help secure the Philadelphia Eagles’ 24-19 victory over Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, we were reminded, again, how much he matters for this Eagles offense.

The Pick Six column leads this week by sizing up the leading MVP candidates, with an eye toward the latest odds, which favor Allen (-250) ahead of Barkley (+400), Jared Goff (+900), Jackson (+1100) and Patrick Mahomes (+1400). The full menu this week, starting with my case for Jackson, despite recent events.

• Sizing up the 2024 MVP race
• Steelers’ future: Wilson & the OC
• NFC North best division since 1970
• Raiders, Bears end-game takeaways
• Dolphins soft? Let’s take a look
• 2-minute drill: Historic Seahawks

1. Lamar Jackson’s production sets him apart among MVP candidates, but with two of his worst statistical games playing out in recent widely televised defeats, his candidacy has taken a hit.

• Why Jackson tops my ballot now: The best MVP candidates are quarterbacks who carry their teams to victories despite poor support from their defenses and special teams. This is when the most valuable players (quarterbacks) are truly most valuable.

Patrick Mahomes carrying Kansas City to Super Bowl victories after the 2018 and 2022 seasons, when those Chiefs teams ranked 27th and 29th, respectively, in combined EPA on defense/special teams, is part of what sets him apart from other championship quarterbacks.

Jackson still must prove himself in the postseason, but the MVP is a regular-season award, and Jackson is doing what only MVP-caliber quarterbacks are able to do. The QB Betrayal Index published last month showed him leading the way in this measure of QB value, a big change for Baltimore, which once dominated on defense and special teams, making it easier to win.

With kicker Justin Tucker slumping and the defense still finding its footing, the Ravens rank 29th in combined EPA on defense and special teams, one spot ahead of Cincinnati. They are nonetheless 8-5 and projected to finish 11-6, per The Athletic’s model, because their offense ranks first in EPA overall and per play.

The Betrayal Index takes EPA associated with the quarterback, subtracts his team’s EPA on defense/special teams and then divides the total by games started. When QB EPA is highly positive and team defense/special teams EPA is highly negative, the number grows large.

Jackson’s 13-game Betrayal Index figure this season ranks third over the past decade among all QBs whose teams were at least three games above .500 at this point (see table below), per TruMedia.

The other QBs in the top five — Mahomes in 2018 and 2022, Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and Matt Ryan in 2016 — all won MVP honors in those seasons. Whether MVP voters knew it or not, they were rewarding the quarterbacks whose brilliance helped overcome weaker support from their defenses and special teams. That is Jackson this season.

Ryan might be the best comp for Jackson because his Super Bowl-bound 2016 Falcons also started 8-5.

Jackson ranks among the NFL’s top three in EPA per pass play, passer rating, touchdown passes, passing yards and yards per attempt. The 132.5 EPA associated with his passes, rushes and scrambles leads the league by far. Allen is second among quarterbacks at 94.0, followed by Goff (86.4), Jayden Daniels (78.3) and Joe Burrow (73.2).

But as the chart below shows, Jackson’s production (measured by EPA) does not correlate with his MVP odds.

It would seem odd if Jackson missed out on MVP honors this season after almost lucking into the award last season, when there weren’t strong candidates. But team results remain such a big part of the equation, driving narratives. While the Betrayal Index tells us Jackson is actually more impressive this season, the elite defensive performance that drove Baltimore’s 13-4 record and top seeding in the AFC one year ago cast his 2023 candidacy in a more favorable light.

Jackson has gone from heavy MVP favorite to fourth behind Allen, Barkley and Goff after his Ravens lost two of their past three. Allen’s Bills have not lost since Oct. 6. Barkley’s Eagles and Goff’s Detroit Lions haven’t lost since September (Goff lags for me in MVP consideration because I think he does less than the others on his own). Jackson gets a bye this week before finishing with the Giants, Steelers, Texans and Browns. He needs a strong finish.

The chart below compares Jackson’s EPA through 13 games to the 13-game totals for every MVP winner since 2000, regardless of position. His production towers over his 2023 production while ranking high among previous winners.

• Barkley vs. Allen: Quarterbacks are more valuable than running backs, but there is no law saying voters must favor a quarterback’s very good season over a running back’s sensational one.

Allen’s Bills rank ninth in defensive EPA per play and eighth in combined EPA on defense/special teams. Allen is having a very good, highly efficient season for a team with an improved ground game. Buffalo now ranks 18th on the Cook Index, down from fifth last season, as the Bills are passing less frequently on early downs, early in games. Theirs is a more complementary brand of football, taking some pressure off the quarterback.

Everything about this Bills team seems right. McDermott and GM Brandon Beane knew how and when to move on from Stefon Diggs. They patiently revamped the receiving corps, adding Amari Cooper at a reasonable price when there was a need. Allen is playing under control. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has found the right balance. There is no drama. Everyone seems to be having fun. Even McDermott. It’s great, and seems stress-free, but it feels less like an incubator for an MVP season than it is one for a Super Bowl run.

While Allen is a much better MVP candidate this season than Jackson was last season, I still lean toward Jackson in 2024, and lean toward Barkley in the No. 2 spot for now.

It’s not Thanksgiving anymore, but Saquon is still eating today 😮‍💨@saquon | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/iN0zg8Tnei

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 2, 2024

Barkley, with 1,499 yards on 246 carries and a 6.1-yard average, trails only 1963 MVP Jim Brown (6.6) and 2008 Chris Johnson (6.2) in yards per carry through the first 13 weeks of a season (minimum 200 carries), per Pro Football Reference.

Barkley ranks eighth since 1946 in rushing yards through a team’s first 12 games. Eight of the others in the top 15 won MVP honors in those years, but none more recently than Adrian Peterson in 2012.

Running backs lag in EPA, which does a great job of measuring how much each play changes the expectations for scoring but does not, in my view, consistently capture the full value of the ground game in balancing out an offense, establishing a physical advantage and taking pressure off quarterbacks. Barkley has been the perfect addition to an Eagles team that is 10-2 and now running the ball more than any team in the league, both overall and in one-score games.

It’s a resurgent year for running backs in general, led by Barkley. But I’ll be surprised if a quarterback doesn’t win it in the end.

2. The Pittsburgh Steelers rolled up 520 yards on Cincinnati and got a 414-yard passing day from Russell Wilson. What happens next will affect Wilson, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and the team.

The Wilson-quarterbacked, Smith-coordinated offense was sensational Sunday beyond a pick six interception enabled by what could have been a penalty for defensive holding or pass interference. This was one of the most productive days for the Steelers’ offense in 305 regular-season and postseason games with Mike Tomlin as coach (it also helped Tomlin secure the 18th non-losing season of his 18-season career).

Finally, after years of ineptitude on that side of the ball, the Steelers look like they have a chance.

The implications are immense:

• Wilson’s future: The Steelers face Cleveland (home), Philadelphia (road), Baltimore (road) and Kansas City (home) over their next four games. That stretch will return the information Pittsburgh needs when deciding how to proceed on a potential contract with Wilson, who was a bargain on a one-year, $1.2 million deal this year while still collecting $37.8 million from Denver.

The Steelers do not negotiate new contracts during the season and seem likely to let the situation play out. Wilson’s contract situation frequently became news during his Seattle days. That is happening again.

“They took the last two quarterbacks available for $1 million apiece last offseason and were winning with Justin Fields, so they are not going to be strong-armed,” an exec from another team said.

Wilson appears headed toward a payday that was no sure thing when Denver released him.

“If he goes to the playoffs and they win a playoff game and lose to the Chiefs in a close one, you are telling me he is not going to get Daniel Jones-type contract offers around the league?” the exec added.

Wilson, who completed 29 of 38 passes for 414 yards and three touchdowns in the 44-38 victory over the Bengals, could get more than that if he successfully navigates the upcoming stretch of tougher defenses and the Steelers break through in the postseason.

Wilson is flourishing with a team that wants to play the way his former team, Seattle, wanted to play early in his career. The combination of tough defense, running the ball and Wilson making big plays downfield was always a winning one.

The Seahawks lost the ability to play that way in Wilson’s final seasons with the team as their defense and run game withered. Wilson sought a more prominent role in the equation when forcing his trade from the Seahawks. Now, he’s got the right team framework to win the way he won long ago, even if he’s less capable as a runner. Sunday’s performance suggested he also can help a team keep pace in a high-scoring game.

• Arthur Smith’s future: Wilson seems like a good fit for Smith’s offense. What if Smith is not calling the plays next season? Smith reportedly will not pursue a chance to coach his alma mater, North Carolina, but he surely would love to become an NFL head coach again.

“I think Arthur Smith will be a candidate for a head-coaching job,” another exec said. “I think we are going to see the second-time head coach come back in vogue. Washington is going to be a test case for that with Dan Quinn getting a second chance. There are quite a few guys who fell out of favor — Matt Nagy being one, Arthur Smith being another — who maybe were tied to the wrong quarterback in their previous stops and will say, ‘Look at what I’ve done as an offensive coordinator in my new place.’”

Quinn was obviously more successful in his previous head-coaching stop, taking the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl, but the general point is one quite a few execs share at this point in the season.

• Steelers outlook: The Steelers have not won a playoff game since Jan. 15, 2017, when they edged the Alex Smith-quarterbacked Chiefs, 18-16, in the divisional round. Twenty-three other franchises have won playoff games since then, including the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns, who have each beaten Pittsburgh in the postseason in that span.

If that drought does not end this season, and if Smith does land a coaching job elsewhere, what will Pittsburgh’s prospects be on offense, with or without Wilson back on a more expensive contract? It’s going to be an interesting next couple of months.

3. With the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings winning, the NFC North moved closer to becoming the most dominant division since Roman Gabriel was the reigning MVP.

The NFC North entered Week 13 as the most dominant since the NFL realigned into eight four-team divisions in 2002, as measured by point margin per game against teams from other divisions.

With Green Bay handling Miami 30-17 and Minnesota edging Arizona 23-22 in Week 13, a question came to mind: Is this the most dominant division since, say, the 1970 AFL-NFL merger?

The answer: Yes.

I’ve expanded my research from last week to evaluate all divisions since 1970 by PPG margin in non-division games through the first 13 weeks of a season. The 2024 NFC North ranks first by that measure (9.36 points per game) and just ahead of the 1984 AFC West — led by John Elway’s Denver Broncos and Howie Long’s Los Angeles Raiders — for second in win rate (.778).

Tapping or hovering over any data points on the chart above will identify the year/division, its PPG margin and its win rate in non-division games.

The 2013 NFC West ranks second to the 2024 NFC North in PPG margin to this point in a season. Third place belongs to the 1976 AFC Central, featuring the Steel Curtain-era Pittsburgh Steelers, the Ken Anderson-quarterbacked Cincinnati Bengals, the Brian Sipe-led Cleveland Browns and the Bum Phillips-coached Houston Oilers.

The current Lions (11-1), Vikings (10-2) and Packers (9-3) have left behind Chicago (4-8), one reason the Bears fired coach Matt Eberflus.

The chart below shows how Eberflus and the surviving NFC North coaches have performed since taking over their teams. The Packers’ Matt LaFleur and the Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell have never been below .500 during their tenures.

The Lions’ Dan Campbell hit bottom at 15 games below .500 two seasons ago. He turned it around with a 15-9 victory over the Packers in Week 9 of 2022, followed the next week by a 31-30 victory over the Bears. Campbell is now 35-27-1 (.563) with Detroit. The Bears’ current six-game losing streak dropped Eberflus to 18 games below .500, triggering the change.

4. Here’s what stood out about the end-of-game disasters for the Bears and Raiders (it wasn’t the strategies).

Bears coach Matt Eberflus came under fire — and lost his job — after failing to use a timeout as the game clock expired with his team trailing at Detroit on Thanksgiving.

Raiders coach Antonio Pierce came under fire one day later after stopping the clock with a spike, then trying to run time off the clock or advance the ball, only to suffer a turnover on a premature snap, without attempting a go-ahead field goal at Kansas City.

There are many ways to manage these late-game situations. In general, teams should do what they’ve practiced, because execution is such an important variable. Here’s what stood out about these critical late-game disasters from a more global perspective:

• Inexperience: Chicago’s head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback were working together in those roles for only the third time. The Raiders’ head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback were working together in those roles for the first time. Both teams changed coordinators recently. Both have inexperienced quarterbacks. Chicago’s Caleb Williams was making his 12th start. The Raiders’ Aidan O’Connell was making his 16th. Both were facing 10-1 teams on the road in chaotic, noisy environments. Lots could go wrong, and did.

• Kicker concerns: Both teams were positioning themselves for tying (Chicago) or go-ahead (Las Vegas) field-goal tries in the final seconds. Both had reason to worry about executing those kicks. Both teams transferred stress from struggling kickers onto inexperienced quarterbacks and fledgling offenses.

Chicago had field-goal tries blocked in each of its previous two games. If the Bears held onto that final timeout so the field goal team could operate without the pressure of a running clock, the strategy came at a price.

For the Raiders, kicker Daniel Carlson had missed three kicks already in the Kansas City cold (the Chiefs had also missed one). Gaining a few more yards could have turned a 50-yard try into a 45-yarder.

• Explanations revealing: Eberflus said he would not have done anything differently. He got into some of the details behind the strategy but was not convincing. Pierce suggested he was merely looking to throw incomplete to take time off the clock on the final play, but that did not appear to be the only consideration, given the way the offense was operating to that point, and aligning before the fateful final snap.

In both cases, the coaches did not appear comfortable, let alone authoritative, when discussing their handling of these critical situations.

5. The Miami Dolphins have a 1-10 record in their last 11 games against teams that had winning records at kickoff. Are they soft? The answer might be hiding in plain sight.

The Dolphins’ 30-17 defeat to Green Bay at Lambeau Field reinforced annoying (to the Dolphins) narratives. This was their 12th consecutive defeat when the temperature was 40 degrees or lower. It also was their 10th defeat in their last 11 games against teams that had winning records.

The cold-weather streak isn’t as interesting because it dates to January 2017, long before Mike McDaniel became coach, and because the stretch includes only road games, including playoffs. Indianapolis and Carolina are a combined 0-15 in similarly cold road games over the same span. Tampa Bay and New Orleans are a combined 8-1 in them. Who knows why?

The Dolphins’ 1-10 record in their last 11 regular-season games against teams with winning records matters more because all occurred under McDaniel. No one wants to be known for such futility.

“This tells me they have a bit of a front runner mentality and when things get tough they don’t have it in their DNA to handle adversity as well as some of the top-tier teams,” former Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, now an analyst for Amazon’s Thursday night coverage, wrote on X. “Maybe there is a different explanation but they usually play very well against opponents that are under .500.”

The Dolphins’ 17-16 regular-season record since 2022 Week 15 includes:

• 12-5 (.706) against losing teams (6th-best)

• 4-1 (.800) against .500 teams (T-4th)

• 1-10 (.091) against winning teams (31st)

We can set aside one of the losses to a winning team (24-3 at Seattle in Week 3) because quarterback Tua Tagovailoa did not play. The 10 remaining games appear below, ranked from best to worst point differential for the Dolphins. Note that Miami was 1-1 when favored in these games, 0-7 as an underdog and 0-1 in a pick-em game against the Chiefs at a neutral site in Germany.

Seven were against teams that were at least four games above .500. Six of those were on the road (including the one against Kansas City in Germany). The other 31 NFL teams have, on average, played 1.9 of these opponents on the road over the same period. That’s one key to solving the puzzle. Note, also, that five of the defeats were against Buffalo, including two when the Bills were at least four games above .500.

Fitzpatrick’s perception of the Dolphins as front-runners who struggle to handle adversity still carries weight. The Dolphins have covered the point spread just three times while posting that 1-9 record against winning teams with Tagovailoa in the lineup. They lost by 37 to Baltimore, 28 and 21 to Buffalo, 14 to Philadelphia and 13 to Green Bay. That’s concerning.

6. Two-minute drill: Seattle overcame a historically bad day on kickoffs and kick returns

The Seahawks netted -19.2 EPA on kickoffs and kickoff returns against the New York Jets on Sunday.

How bad was that?

It was the worst single-game performance on kickoffs and kickoff returns in 6,641 regular-season and postseason games since 2000, per TruMedia. That’s 13,282nd out of 13,282 individual team performances on these plays, as measured by EPA.

And Seattle still won the game, 26-21!

The table below lists the 10 plays that combined to produce the historically bad EPA for Seattle on kickoffs and kickoff returns.

The Seahawks could not have won the game without a couple of former Jets draft choices.

Leonard Williams’ 92-yard interception return for a touchdown (+11.2 EPA) was the most pivotal play of the game.

Williams, drafted No. 6 by the Jets in 2015, added two sacks worth a combined 1.5 EPA on New York’s final drive.

Those three plays and the extra point he blocked (+0.9 EPA) offset 72 percent of the EPA lost on those kick/kick return miscues (+13.8 of -19.2). Williams basically took over the game. As an interior defensive lineman, that is very difficult to do. His efforts allowed Williams and Seattle quarterback Geno Smith, a 2013 Jets second-round choice, to enjoy their homecoming.

pic.twitter.com/gbaftGu8rI

— Geno (@GenoSmith3) December 1, 2024

Led by Williams, who was especially dominant during a Week 12 victory over Arizona, Seattle ranks No. 1 in defensive EPA per play since Week 9, a span of four games. The Seahawks ranked 20th through Week 8.

• Chargers defense: Before Sunday, Kirk Cousins had never thrown four or more interceptions without a touchdown pass in any of his 160 career starts, counting playoffs. That changed when the Chargers picked him off four times without allowing a scoring pass during their 17-13 victory over Cousins’ Atlanta Falcons. This was an encouraging performance for a much-improved Chargers defense that had sagged against stiffer competition in recent weeks.

The Chargers are now three games into a five-game stretch against highly paid veteran quarterbacks. Joe Burrow (Week 11) and Lamar Jackson (Week 12) led offenses that produced more EPA against the Chargers than any others had all season. Cousins was capable of producing similarly, but the Chargers shut him down, complete with Tarheeb Still’s pick six.

TO THE 🏡

📺 | @nfloncbs pic.twitter.com/9EjMGmntzr

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 1, 2024

The table below lists the Chargers’ opposing quarterbacks chronologically, with the current five-game stretch marked by borders. Team offensive EPA appears in the final column. The Chargers needed this performance Sunday.

Next up for this Chargers’ defense, which ranks fourth in EPA per play: Patrick Mahomes, whose Chiefs defeated the Chargers 17-10 in Week 4, despite being held to -6.8 EPA, by far a season worst for Kansas City.

• About Cousins: What if the Chargers’ performance against Cousins said more about Cousins and the Falcons’ offense, which hasn’t topped 17 points in any of three successive defeats against teams with strong defenses? The final scores of these losses: 20-17 at New Orleans, 38-6 at Denver and now, after a bye, 17-13 at home against the Chargers.

The Falcons plan to stick with Cousins instead of turning to rookie first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. That’s only fair, with a trip to Minnesota, where Cousins posted a 50-37-1 (.574) starting record, next on the schedule for the Falcons. How long will the team stay patient?

• Kingsbury’s reprieve: The Washington Commanders’ offense was back during a 42-19 victory over the Tennessee Titans, meaning offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury won’t have to hear as much about his units declining in the second halves of seasons. The totals: 463 yards, 29 first downs, 64 percent conversion rate on third down (9 of 14) and six touchdowns. It all added up to the Commanders’ third-best offensive EPA game of the season and best since Week 5 against Cleveland. It was a great way for Kingsbury and the Commanders to enter their bye.

• Bryce Young’s resurgence: The Carolina Panthers have suffered many brutal defeats in recent seasons. The way they fell in overtime to Tampa Bay, with Chuba Hubbard losing a fumble when Carolina was in range for the winning field-goal try in overtime, was merely painful. It was not brutal — not in the context of where this franchise has been. The Panthers have become competitive. Their second-year quarterback, Bryce Young, looks more viable. Check out Young’s splits in the table below. The second column features his production since returning from his benching.

• Lawrence’s injury: The hit Houston’s Azeez Al-Shaair put on Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence left Lawrence exhibiting frightening concussion symptoms.

It was good to see Lawrence was feeling better later Sunday.

Thank you to everyone who has reached out / been praying for me. I’m home and feeling better. Means a lot, thank you all🙌🏼

— Trevor Lawrence (@Trevorlawrencee) December 2, 2024

Officials ejected Al-Shaair from the game. The league will presumably suspend him under rules in place to protect quarterbacks when they slide — rules that did not exist for most of the NFL’s history.

For some historical perspective, this 1988 hit by the Bears’ Mike Singletary on Steve Pelluer was deemed “The Hit of the Year”.

No flag. pic.twitter.com/HfPOv0YenY

— Kevin Gallagher (@KevG163) December 2, 2024

(Photo of Saquon Barkley: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)