NFL QB stock report, Week 16: Why hasn’t C.J. Stroud played like the phenom he was as a rookie?


Houston Texans sensation C.J. Stroud had a chance to solidify himself this season among the NFL’s elite class of quarterbacks.

The No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft was an easy choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year. During training camp, The Athletic asked coaches and executives which three quarterbacks they’d take to start a franchise from scratch, with Stroud appearing on 16 of 27 ballots. Only Patrick Mahomes received more votes.

Instead, Stroud’s projected jump has been on hold. He hasn’t been bad this season, but his performance has dipped — and so has his standing in these rankings. This is the first time Stroud has found himself outside of the top 10. One executive said Stroud has been “not playing anywhere near (as well as) last year” when he was so dominant that he dramatically accelerated the Texans’ rebuild by leading them to their first AFC South title in four years.

The Athletic’s Week 16 QB rankings

Two statistics stand out. First, Stroud led the NFL in 2023 with 273.9 passing yards per game, but it has dropped to 232.0 this season, ranking 17th. He also led the league as a rookie by throwing interceptions on 1 percent of his passes, but that’s doubled to 2 percent (16th in the NFL) this season.

“I don’t expect C.J. to be a guy who dips and will continue to struggle,” a second executive said. “I think he’ll figure it out, and they’ll figure it out as a team. They have enough weapons. The way they’ve run the ball will take pressure off him.”

Stroud’s issues have stemmed from protection problems on the offensive line. He’s already taken more sacks this season than as a rookie (45 to 38), and he’s been sacked on nearly 9 percent of his dropbacks, an increase of about 2 percent.

“He’s getting the s— beat out of him,” the second executive said. “He’s been getting hit all year. When C.J. is under pressure, the play is going to drop off. When you’re not comfortable and don’t trust what’s around you, that’s not surprising as a young quarterback. I don’t think he’s regressed. I think he’s just sped up with the progressions and the throws, and that hurts accuracy.”

The hits can be impossible for even the best quarterbacks to overcome, let alone the younger signal callers who are still developing. When the Texans lost three of four earlier this season to the Lions, Jets, Colts (win) and Packers, Stroud took 18 sacks and was hit 17 more times.

Of course, it also hasn’t helped that top receiver Nico Collins missed five games with a hamstring injury, star wideout Stefon Diggs tore his ACL in Week 8 and running back Joe Mixon missed three early games with a high ankle sprain.

So no, Stroud hasn’t dazzled the way he did as a rookie, but it’s also understandable. Add in the defensive adjustments that young quarterbacks face, the lack of pass protection and the injuries around Stroud, and it’s been enough to rock his typically steady composure.

“People in the scouting community were interested to see how this offense and the player would adjust in Year 2 when teams had a year to study, adjust and learn what he does well and what he struggles with,” a third executive said. “Now it’s up to the offensive staff and the player to adjust if they can.”

It’s also fair to point out that Stroud isn’t the first quarterback to deal with protection and injury issues. But at this stage of his career, that’s a common confluence of factors that result in temporary quarterback regression.

“It’s learning how to deal with that,” the second executive said.

All the while, the Texans still wrapped up the AFC South division title with three games to play. They beat the Bills in Week 4 and lost to the Packers and Lions by a combined five points, so they’re not too far off. Their next two games, against the Chiefs and Ravens, could change the entire perception around the Texans’ playoff chances.

However the rest of the season plays out, no coach nor executive surveyed by The Athletic this season believes Stroud’s rookie year was a fluke. This season is viewed as growing pains for a quarterback who can still mature into one of the league’s best players.

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Collision course

Jared Goff has been outstanding all season, but the Lions QB did something Sunday in the loss to the Bills that should create optimism during a frustrating stretch in Detroit.

Earlier in the year, executives wanted to see how Goff would perform when the Lions weren’t in command of the game — obvious passing situations in a deficit when he needed to go throw for throw with an upper-echelon quarterback on the opposing sideline.

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Suffice it to say, Goff didn’t blink despite trailing by multiple scores for the majority of the Lions’ 48-42 loss. And given the state of the Lions’ injury-ravaged defense and the unenviable task of countering another superhuman performance from Josh Allen, there wasn’t any room for error after Detroit’s stagnant start.

Goff finished Sunday 38-of-59 passing for 494 yards and five touchdowns. He led four consecutive TD drives to close the game, nearly helping the Lions pull off a miracle comeback despite a rare Amon-Ra St. Brown lost fumble and a Jake Bates missed field goal.

Goff proved he can post points in a hurry if necessary. And with how many injuries the Lions have endured, it will probably be necessary.

Speaking of which, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts also silenced some doubters, internal or otherwise, with a brilliant performance in a 27-13 victory against the Steelers. He was 25 of 32 for 290 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 45 yards and a score, and Hurts did it while running back Saquon Barkley was largely limited.

The Lions and Eagles have been the NFC’s top-two seeds since the playoff picture began to take shape, so it would hardly be a surprise to see them square off with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. And with both quarterbacks answering pivotal questions against quality opponents, such a matchup could live up to the hype.

Pick 2

Two random thoughts. First, Packers wideout Romeo Doubs did indeed make an awesome catch on his game-sealing 22-yard touchdown against the Seahawks, but let’s not lose sight of Jordan Love’s throw. The Packers QB was at the 32-yard line when he made the throw to Doubs, who was at the 10-yard line and wrestling through tight coverage during the QB’s windup. Love picked a perfect spot and couldn’t have thrown it any better.

Second, and this might sound weird after a 12-6 rock fight in the rain, but Rams QB Matthew Stafford has been playing at a very high level for most of the past month. His performance two weeks ago against the Bills was as good as it gets in terms of making high-quality throw after high-quality throw. The Rams are shaping up to be a threat if they get into the playoffs, and Stafford’s play is a primary reason.

Bloody Sunday

It was a tough week to play quarterback. Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain; Geno Smith exited with a knee injury; and Justin Herbert aggravated his ankle injury.

Additionally, Jameis Winston, Jake Haener and Will Levis were benched, while Tommy DeVito suffered a concussion.

We kept Winston and Levis in the rankings while the Browns and Titans assess their situations. Haener was replaced in the rankings by Spencer Rattler, as we work under the assumption he’ll get a longer look after his impressive second half against the Commanders.

Showing the fragility of the backup/fringe starter dynamic across the league, just six teams have had the 32nd-ranked QB in 16 weeks this season — the Dolphins (five times), Giants (four), Raiders (two), Titans (two), Saints (two) and Packers (one). And in hindsight, if there was any way to predict how well Malik Willis would have played for the Packers, they wouldn’t be on this list.

Dropped out: Drew Lock (heel injury), No. 31 last week; Haener (benched), No. 32 last week.

(Photo of C.J. Stroud: Luke Hales / Getty Images)





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