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Donald Trump holds a commanding lead over the rest of the 2024 Republican presidential field in Iowa — and a more than 2-to-1 lead over his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — with about five months to Caucus Day, a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
The poll of Iowa’s likely Republican caucusgoers comes as the former president grapples with the fallout of a fourth criminal indictment and a pack of other top contenders prepares to gather for a high-stakes GOP presidential debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday.
Among those likely caucusgoers, 42% say they plan to support Trump — a lead of 23 percentage points over DeSantis, who is at 19%. U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina follows in third place with 9%.
Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence tie at 6%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is at 5% and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy follows with 4%.
The poll finds many indicators of Trump’s strength, but the race is not settled and may be “closer than it may first seem,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the firm that conducted the poll.
More:See where presidential candidates are campaigning in Iowa
Sixty-three percent of likely GOP caucusgoers say they support Trump as their first or second choice in the caucuses or are actively considering him. That footprint is on par with the 61% who say the same for DeSantis.
Plenty could shift by Caucus Day on Jan. 15.
A majority, or 52%, of likely GOP caucusgoers have a first choice for president and say they could still be persuaded to support a different candidate, while 40% say their minds are made up. Seven percent do not have a first-choice candidate.
In addition, just 7% of poll respondents say they are considering only one candidate for president. Seventeen percent say they are considering two candidates; 19% say three; and 55%, four or more.
The poll of 406 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Aug. 13-17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
It is the Iowa’s Poll’s first test of the field of 14 Republican candidates vying for their party’s chance to take on Democratic President Joe Biden in 2024.
In addition to the top contenders, seven other candidates are polling at 2% or lower.
They include North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who is at 2%, and former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, who has 1%.
Businessman Ryan Binkley, conservative radio host Larry Elder, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Perry Johnson and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez all register below 1%.
As they think about which candidate to support, 65% of poll respondents say it’s most important to find a candidate who comes closest to their own views on issues, while 29% say it’s most important to pick a candidate who has the best chance of defeating Biden.
Donald Trump’s legal challenges may be helping him in Iowa
Even as Trump faces mounting legal troubles, his support appears only to grow.
A grand jury in Georgia indicted Trump Aug. 15 for allegedly attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election there.
The Iowa Poll, which was conducted Aug. 13-17, showed greater support for Trump in the days after the indictment was unveiled.
In the days before the indictment, Trump led DeSantis 38% to 20%. In the days after, his lead grew to 43% over DeSantis’ 18%.
Trump’s Iowa footprint, combining his first-choice support, second choice and those actively considering him, also increased 12 percentage points after the Georgia indictment was announced — from 55% to 67%.
Donald Trump leads, but Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott have room to grow
Although Trump leads overall, the poll measures candidates’ full footprint of support in Iowa, where caucusgoers are known for considering many candidates before slowly zeroing in on one person by Caucus Day.
The footprint adds together those who say the candidate is their first choice for president, those who say the candidate is their second choice and those who are actively considering supporting the candidate.By that measure, about as many likely GOP caucusgoers are considering DeSantis as are considering Trump.
Trump’s Iowa footprint includes the 42% who say he is their first choice for president, 10% who say he is their second choice and 12% who say they are actively considering him. That’s 63%, or nearly two-thirds of likely Republican caucusgoers, who are considering caucusing for Trump.
DeSantis’ support includes the 19% who name him as their first choice, 20% who say he is their second choice and 22% who say they are actively considering him — totaling 61%.
Scott is the only other candidate whose Iowa footprint tops 50%.
In addition to the 9% who say Scott is their first choice for president, 15% say he is their second choice and 29% say they are actively considering him. That gives him an Iowa footprint of 53%.
Haley’s Iowa footprint totals 40%, Ramaswamy’s is 34% and Pence’s is 31%.
Selzer said other candidates have the opportunity to gain on Trump and turn people who are actively considering them into firm supporters, but “there’s a lot of work to be done.”
Trump’s support is more firmly locked in than DeSantis’; 66% of those who name Trump as their first choice say their minds are made up, while 34% say they could be persuaded to support someone else.
For DeSantis, it’s nearly the inverse, with 31% who say their minds are made up and 69% who could be persuaded.
More:Donald Trump, at Iowa fair, woos crowds, rebuffs ‘wise guy’ question on taking plea deal
Trump also leads DeSantis among self-identified Republicans, the core of caucusgoers, 51% to 20%.
Among those who say they will be attending their first caucus in January, Trump leads the Florida governor 47% to 18%.
And among evangelicals, an influential group in Iowa that’s often key to a caucus win, Trump leads with 47% who say he is their first choice for president. He’s followed by DeSantis, who gets 20% of evangelicals and Scott who gets 7%.
Phil Marchand, a 42-year-old Sergeant Bluffs resident and poll respondent, said he caucused for Trump ahead of the 2016 election and has been “on the Trump train” ever since.
Marchand is steadfast in his support for Trump in the current election cycle. He said he considered other Republican candidates, including DeSantis and Scott, but ultimately decided to caucus again for the former president come January.
“The more time I spend listening to DeSantis and the more I listen to the things Trump is saying, the more I think that it has to be (Trump). It can’t be anyone else,” he said.
More:Trump is wrestling with 5 big legal cases. Here’s how they may collide with the campaign calendar.
Marchand said he appreciates Trump’s “America first” approach to foreign policy and his efforts to grow the economy and jobs.
If Trump does not receive the Republican nomination, Marchand said he would likely register as an independent and vote for a third-party candidate.
Independent caucusgoers could be ‘the way in’ for Trump challengers
Among independents, Trump and DeSantis are nearly evenly split, with 21% supporting Trump as their first choice and 19% supporting DeSantis.
Another 13% of independents support Scott, 12% support Christie, 10% support Haley and 6% each support Pence and Ramaswamy. No other candidate tops 5% with independents.
Self-identified independents who say they will likely caucus with Republicans make up 25% of the poll’s respondents.
“To me, that’s a little bit of something to be paying attention to,” Selzer said. “Because we’ve seen this happen in the past. A non-Trump candidate could say, ‘I’ve got to get people to come to the caucus who are outside of the GOP base.’ So, if a candidate can grow the people who are coming to the caucuses, that is the way in, because Trump is strong with that base.”
Brian Alstrom, a 48-year-old independent voter and poll respondent, said he would consider caucusing in January — if it looks like some of the candidates opposing Trump have a chance.
“I did vote for him both times because it was the lesser of two evils,” Alstrom said of Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns. “But it was hard to even listen to him speak. I’m just done with him. Hopefully I don’t have to vote for him again, because I’m not going to vote for Joe Biden.”
Alstrom, who is a Dorchester resident, said he’s soured on Trump’s personal approach to managing conflicts and his combative attitude. He said DeSantis is his top choice for president, followed by Scott.
In DeSantis, Alstrom sees an appealing candidate with a “common sense approach” to issues that are important to him, such as the economy and national security.
“Florida speaks for itself in how successful they’ve been,” he said. “… I’d love to see that transfer to the rest of our country.”
Donald Trump has never been viewed favorably by more Iowa Republican caucusgoers
Since his presidency ended and as he has mounted a third campaign for the White House, Trump has been criminally indicted four times, has attacked Kim Reynolds, Iowa’s popular Republican governor, and has held relatively few campaign events in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
And yet, Trump has never been viewed favorably by more of Iowa’s likely Republican caucusgoers than he is now, the Iowa Poll shows.
In August 2015, Trump was viewed favorably by 61% and unfavorably by 35% — his best showing among likely GOP caucusgoers during the 2016 caucus cycle. Trump went on to finish second in Iowa’s Republican caucuses behind U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.
More:Candidates try to clear GOP debate fundraising hurdles. Is it changing their Iowa strategy?
Now, Trump is viewed favorably by 65%. That includes 42% who view him “very favorably” — the best showing of any of the 2024 candidates. Another 33% view him unfavorably, and 2% are not sure.
Trump’s best showing is among self-identified Republicans, with 77% viewing him favorably and 21% viewing him unfavorably.
He also does well with those who make less than $70,000 a year (74% favorable, 25% unfavorable) and among evangelicals (74% favorable, 25% unfavorable).
DeSantis’ overall favorability numbers are about on par with Trump’s.
The Florida governor is viewed favorably by 66% of likely GOP caucusgoers and unfavorably by 29%. Another 5% are not sure.
Among self-identified Republicans, DeSantis is viewed favorably by 74% and unfavorably by 21% — numbers that are about equal to Trump’s.
More:Republican presidential candidates woo Iowa’s pivotal evangelicals to pry them away from Trump
Poll respondent Rick Williams, a 72-year-old Holstein resident and self-identified Republican, said he considers himself a Trump supporter and believes the former president is being unfairly targeted in the series of criminal indictments that have been unveiled this year.
Still, he plans to support someone else in the caucuses. Right now, he prefers DeSantis.
“Trump supporters are going to support him no matter what if he’s the nominee,” Williams said. “But we need the independents. We can’t win with just us. We’ve got to get the independents, and I don’t know if he can swing them.”
The Florida governor has higher favorability ratings with independents than Trump: 52% view him favorably, and 43% view him unfavorably.
More:Mike Pence is asking Iowans to choose him for president. Some say Jan. 6 is ‘holding him back’
For Trump, it’s the inverse: 44% of independents view him favorably, while a majority, 53%, view him unfavorably.
Williams, a semi-retired paramedic, said Scott is currently his second-choice candidate.
Scott is viewed favorably by 59% and unfavorably by 17%. But a higher percentage — 24% — are unsure, indicating they don’t know enough about him to say one way or the other.
Genevieve Hefel, a 63-year-old Dubuque resident and poll respondent, said she voted for Trump in the 2020 election but has felt her support for the former president wane.
Because of the recent indictments, Hefel, a retired Army sergeant, said she believes there’s “too much noise” around Trump for him to be able to defeat a Democratic opponent in the general election.
Hefel said she’s still considering other Republican contenders in the race, but she’s drawn to Scott’s “positive message and Christian beliefs” and plans to caucus for him.
“He’s able to carry on a conversation to get his point across without having to be ignorant or raise his voice,” Hefel said, reflecting on an interview she saw Scott give recently. “He handled it very professionally and calmly, and I thought he made very good points.”
Scott does best with those age 55 and older, with 70% viewing him favorably and 16% viewing him unfavorably.
Haley is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 26%. Another 21% are not sure.
Mike Pence, Chris Christie among those with highest unfavorable ratings
Seven candidates are underwater, meaning more likely Republican caucusgoers view them unfavorably than favorably.
They include Binkley (12% favorable, 21% unfavorable), Hurd (13%-22%), Hutchinson (20%-32%), Johnson (18%-22%) and Suarez (12%-23%).
Pence is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 53%, with 5% who aren’t sure. Even though he’s underwater, a plurality — 33% — say they have a “mostly” favorable view of the former vice president.
But he holds no advantage with evangelicals, despite his efforts to highlight his own faith and connect with Iowa’s religious conservatives: 43% view him favorably and 51% view him unfavorably — numbers that mirror his overall favorability numbers.
Among all the candidates, Christie is viewed unfavorably by the greatest share of poll respondents, with 60% saying they view him unfavorably, including 31% who view him “very” unfavorably. Another 28% say they view him favorably and 12% say they’re not sure.
No 2024 presidential candidate performs better than Iowa’s own Republican elected officials.
Reynolds commands the highest numbers, with 81% viewing her favorably (including 50% who view her very favorably), 18% who view her unfavorably and 1% who are not sure.
U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley is viewed favorably by 73%, unfavorably by 22%, and 5% are not sure.
U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst is viewed favorably by 72%, unfavorably by 24%, and 4% are not sure.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.
Michaela Ramm covers health care for the Des Moines Register. She can be reached atmramm@registermedia.com, at (319) 339-7354 or on Twitter at@Michaela_Ramm.
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Aug. 13-17, 2023, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 406 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,953 randomly selected voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.
Questions based on the sample of 406 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.
