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The parity which the NFL strives to achieve – free agency, the salary cap, draft and schedule all mechanisms designed to hinder the strong and help the weak – has sustained an amazing streak that’s well into its fourth decade. Dating to 1990, when the postseason field expanded to 12 teams (it increased to 14 in 2020), at least four clubs have qualified in every season after missing the playoffs the year before. In 2022, eight of the participants in the Super Bowl tournament weren’t part of it in 2021.
Who will crash the party in 2023? My annual record projections (and 33 consecutive seasons) suggest the requisite quartet of newcomers will show up … and probably more. So let’s rank the teams, from least likely to most, on the chances I give them to make the jump from 2022 bystanders to 2023 contenders (predicted record in parentheses, with asterisks denoting playoff projection):
18. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
With RB Josh Jacobs, last season’s league rushing leader, in witness protection, they’re already in a predicament. But at least QB Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) has a clean bill of health and the experience to adjust to a Jacobs-less offense if need be. And if this defense is as shaky on the field as it is on paper – especially in the back seven – then Jimmy G. probably won’t be handing off very often anyway.
17. Arizona Cardinals (2-15)
Even if QB Kyler Murray’s reconstructed ACL was ready to go Week 1 – it won’t be – there would be serious questions about the Cards’ ability to compete in 2023 based on a degraded roster, particularly on defense, and a green coaching staff.
16. Indianapolis Colts (4-13)
With a first-year head coach (Shane Steichen) and rookie quarterback (Anthony Richardson), the learning curve was always going to be steep – laudable as it is that the franchise decided to stop treading water under center. What’s less praiseworthy is Indy’s standoff with RB Jonathan Taylor and the deleterious effect it could have on Richardson’s development. If Taylor isn’t on the field, four wins will be a serious stretch.
15. Houston Texans (6-11)
New HC DeMeco Ryans should mean more wins, stabilizing a position of recent instability. New QB C.J. Stroud should mean more wins, stabilizing a position of recent instability. DE Will Anderson Jr. should mean more wins, stabilizing a position of recent instability. And with better production expected from sophomore CB Derek Stingley Jr., G Kenyon Green, S Jalen Pitre and WR John Metchie III … you get the picture.
14. New England Patriots (7-10)
They’re 25-26 post-Brady. QB Mac Jones should rebound with the help of a legitimate offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien. But it feels like a gulf has formed between the Pats and the rest of an ever-improving division, and their first last-place finish since 2000 is a real possibility.
13. Chicago Bears (7-10)
Rocketing from a three-win season that conferred the No. 1 pick of the 2023 draft to the playoffs in one year doesn’t seem especially realistic. However adding veterans like WR DJ Moore, LB Tremaine Edmunds, G Nate Davis and, most recently, DE Yannick Ngakoue – plus whatever the rookie class contributes – should lead to several more victories … and maybe a shot at a wild card (and perhaps even the NFC North title with some breaks) in what projects as a wide-open conference.
12. Tennessee Titans (8-9)
Their most viable path back to postseason is surely via the AFC South crown – which they were one win from retaining despite how badly last season spiraled following a 7-3 start. And, don’t forget, Tennessee was the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed in 2021. They’re highly unlikely to get back to that even with QB Ryan Tannehill and OLB Harold Landry III healthy and WR DeAndre Hopkins in the fold. But a return to the top of the division is within reason.
11. Washington Commanders (7-10)
They’ve got a quiver full of weapons on offense. They’ve got a top-10 defense that generates consistent pressure. If they get a bounce-back season from DE Chase Young and better results than most expect from the quarterback position – whether from unproven Sam Howell or journeyman Jacoby Brissett … maybe they’ve got a shot at a wild card in what projects as a wide-open conference.
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10. Los Angeles Rams (7-10)
Their stars were torpedoed by injuries in 2022, leading to the worst Super Bowl defense in league history, and WR Cooper Kupp is already temporarily down with a hamstring issue. Given how suspect this defense seems – and that’s with DL Aaron Donald – HC Sean McVay, QB Matthew Stafford and Kupp need to be at their top of their collective game … and, if so, maybe they’ve got a shot at a wild card in what projects as a wide-open conference.
9. Green Bay Packers (7-10)
New QB1 Jordan Love is the primary X-factor for a club that didn’t go to the playoffs in its first season with Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers under center. But if Love gets the support from the run game and defense that Rodgers didn’t necessarily have in 2022, the Pack might build off last season’s 8-9 mark … and, yep, maybe they’ve got a shot at a wild card (and perhaps even the NFC North title with some breaks) in what projects as a wide-open conference.
8. Carolina Panthers (7-10)
Much is dependent on how quickly it takes rookie QB Bryce Young to acclimate to the NFL, though he should be helped by what’s generally a pretty solid roster – one that continues to improve, OLB Justin Houston being a recent addition – and an experienced (if new) coaching staff. Playing in the NFC South seemingly gives the Panthers more viable paths to a division crown or a wild card then the other teams in the conference whom I project to finish 7-10.
7. Denver Broncos (10-7)
The offseason looked pretty good, what with the onboarding of HC Sean Payton, infusion of free agent talent – especially as it pertains to protecting slimmed-down QB Russell Wilson – and the implementation of a new culture that might help a team that suffered nine of its 12 losses in 2022 by seven points or fewer. Training camp hasn’t gone so well, Payton putting his team in the spotlight – while presumably trying to defend it – thanks to an interview with USA TODAY Sports’ Jarrett Bell, plus the loss of reliable WR Tim Patrick (Achilles) to a season-ending summer injury for the second straight year. Still, Payton, the law of averages and the roster at large could make what was a deceptively competitive team last year into one to be reckoned with.
6. Cleveland Browns (10-7)
If they played in the NFC, one might view them as a seriously legit Super Bowl threat. Instead, they’re counting on QB Deshaun Watson to return to Pro Bowl form as he prepares for his first full season since 2020 in hopes this team can make hay in what appears to be the best division in the league. Watson’s complete integration into the offense and new coordinator Jim Schwartz’s assumption of defensive responsibilities – with new DE Za’Darius Smith at his disposal – are major changes in Cleveland … and perhaps enough to spark a deep playoff push even through the AFC minefield.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6)
They miss postseason by virtue of a tiebreaker in this projection … which is to say they could very easily make it. Going into Year 2, QB Kenny Pickett is far more comfortable. OLB T.J. Watt, the league’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2021, is fully healthy … and so, it seems, is RB Najee Harris. Factor in what could be this year’s best rookie class (LT Broderick Jones, CB Joey Porter Jr., DL Keeanu Benton, TE Darnell Washington), and every reason to believe the Steelers improve on last year’s 9-8 finish.
4. *Atlanta Falcons (9-8)
After finishing one game out of first place last year, they could greatly benefit from their position in what looks to be the worst division in the weaker conference. If not for the unknown commodity that is second-year QB Desmond Ridder, this offense would likely project as a top-five unit given its talent throughout. And if a 27th-ranked defense gets to middling after its free agent augmentation? It probably won’t take much luck – like getting the league’s easiest schedule (based on 2022 opponents’ winning percentages) – for the Dirty Birds to win the NFC South for the first time since their 2016 Super Bowl season.
3. *New Orleans Saints (9-8)
After finishing one game out of first place last year, they could greatly benefit from their position in what looks to be the worst division in the weaker conference. QB Derek Carr would seem to be the NFC South’s top gun – for now – and the backfield depth behind him should allow New Orleans to weather RB Alvin Kamara’s three-game suspension. But what looks to be the division’s best defense might be what distinguishes the Saints into first place.
2. *New York Jets (12-5)
Perhaps you’ve heard they now employ QB Aaron Rodgers? If not, set the DVR for “Hard Knocks” tonight and start catching up. Winning the AFC East may be a tall order, yet going back to 1977 – with the exception of the 1982 strike season, when divisional play was suspended – at least one team has won its division after missing the playoffs the previous campaign in every year. But let’s put the history lesson aside. Rodgers, along with a few other key acquisitions, joins a team with a nice set of offensive playmakers and a top-five defense. However the schedule won’t be easy to navigate – Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos and Eagles before the Week 7 bye alone – so I’ve got the NYJ going the wild-card route, much as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did in Tom Brady’s inaugural (Super Bowl-winning) season. However it must be noted Rodgers and Co. have little margin for error in the loaded AFC and in their own very unforgiving division.
1. *Detroit Lions (11-6)
There’s a reason Ford Field’s season tickets are sold out for the first time. A team that won eight of its final 10 games in 2022 and missed postseason on a tiebreaker (to the Seattle Seahawks) appears bolstered defensively, where Detroit ranked last in 2022, and has added rookie weapons in RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta on the offensive side. And with the Bears and Packers in some stage of a reboot and the reigning division champion Minnesota Vikings losing key parts due to salary cap-related decisions – not to mention a likely regression after a few fluky wins last year – the Lions appear to be solid favorites to win the NFC North for the first time since it came into existence in 2002.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.
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