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Blame SaleAgreeable2834 for causing an upheaval in the NFL draft betting market.
That’s the Reddit username for an anonymous account that claimed that Will Levis, a projected first-round pick Thursday in the 2023 NFL draft, was informing others he would be the first overall selection by the Carolina Panthers.
“Will Levis is currently +4000 to be the first overall pick,” read the post, which had 1,500 comments in the r/sportsbook subreddit as of Tuesday night. “Well ladies and gentleman (sic), he’s telling friends and family Carolina will in fact take him on Thursday. You’re welcome.”
The post, which contained no other evidence, went live around 8 a.m. ET. Within an hour, the odds for Levis to go first overall shifted from 40-1 to 4-1 at major sportsbooks, including DraftKings and Caesars.
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The volume of bets sportsbooks received on Levis becoming the first overall pick surged, DraftKings, Caesars and FanDuel reported. Caesars college football lead trader Joey Feazel told USA TODAY Sports that he can’t remember a social media post ever holding this much sway. But it happened.
“Once you get those flood of bets, it’s going to make a big odds shift,” Feazel said.
Feazel said no eye-popping wagers came through during the period between the post going up and Caesars adjusting its odds. Two bets around $500 and another close to $800 were the most notable, he said. Limits on draft wagers, given the scarcity of information available, are lower compared to gambling on a game or placing a futures bet.
USA TODAY Sports reached out to the Reddit account for comment and did not receive a response. Messages to Levis’ agency, CAA, have not been returned.
Not the first time NFL draft odds swayed by Internet
Last year, the betting markets favored cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner going No. 3 overall to the Houston Texans. Two days before the draft, Feazel said, Derek Stingley was holding at 40-1. Stingley became the favorite by the morning of the draft.
“That situation was correct,” the oddsmaker said. “This situation, we’ll have to find out Thursday.”
The action Tuesday on Levis was undeniably linked to the Reddit post, Feazel said.
“Definitely to (Tuesday’s) action was a hundred percent taken from that Reddit post,” Feazel said. “It doesn’t look like it’s anything else. I guess we’ll see if it’s a smokescreen or the real deal come Thursday night.”
More back-and-forth with Bryce Young
Caesars, like many sportsbooks, has No. 1 overall pick odds posted throughout the year. Much of that action was on Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, who virtually every mock draft predicts will be taken No. 1 by Carolina.
After Levis’ odds shortened, the pendulum swung back to Young at Caesars.
“Now we’re seeing a little more back-and-forth,” Feazel said. “A little more on Bryce Young. And that’s what we like to see, two-way action, as opposed to Levis, Levis, Levis.”
Caesars would benefit most from a C.J. Stroud selection at No. 1. However, Feazel acknowledged that appears a pipedream. Feazel said he was comfortable with Caesars’ position on Young, but the betting public would mightily benefit if Levis held up a Panthers jersey next to Roger Goodell.
Odds changes for Texans, No. 2 pick: Levis, Stroud or wildcard?
The risk Caesars and other books face in the draft is a factor of the market evolving throughout the pre-draft process. Young began 2023 as the front-runner to be No. 1, but the markets changed when the Panthers acquired the top pick from the Chicago Bears in March. Two weeks ago, however, Young again took over the top position in most mock drafts and the betting markets.
“It’s all information-based,” Feazel said, “which can be tough to book at times.”
For a while, Stroud settled into the favorite position for the second pick, going to the Texans. Levis now leads at Caesars and other books. According to the Action Network, Stroud’s odds fell from +150 to +350 over a 36-hour span.
Most mock drafts have Levis going in the first round, but few have him being selected in the top two. Clearly, the betting markets disagree.
Who started the Will Levis-Panthers rumor?
SaleAgreeable2834 did not give much credence to the idea the post was the needle mover.
“If you think this post moved a line from 4000 to 400 you probably shouldn’t be gambling,” the account wrote in a comment thread.
The post was the second made by the account. The other one speculated about potential casting for the Robert Pattinson “The Batman” movie series.
What are the Carolina Panthers saying?
In a news conference Tuesday, Panthers head coach Frank Reich said the organization had reached a “consensus” on their No. 1 overall pick. He declined to reveal who that player was.
The team has met with all of the top quarterback prospects in the draft, including Anthony Richardson and Stroud.
“There was ebbs and flows during the process,” Reich, entering his first year with the team, told reporters. “I don’t want to say there’s any drastic change of mind, but there’s ebbs and flows of how much you like a guy, and that’s why you have to resist the temptation of making your mind up too early.”
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Follow Chris Bumbaca on Twitter @BOOMbaca.
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